A framework for communicating the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the discipline of public health, infectious disease, and policy modeling squarely into the spotlight. Never before have decisions regarding public health measures and their impacts been such a topic of international deliberation from the level of individuals and communities through to global leaders. And nor previously have models – developed at rapid pace and often in the absence of complete information - been so central to the decision-making process. However, after more than 18 months of experience with pandemic modeling, policy-makers need to be more confident about which models will be most helpful to support them when taking public health decisions. We combine the authors’ collective international experience of modelling for and with Governments and policy-makers with prior research utilisation scholarship to describe a framework to assist both modelers and policy-makers consider the utility of models that may be available to them when faced with difficult public health and policy decisions. To illustrate these principles, a set of three independent but complementary modeling case-studies undertaken at the same time in NSW, Australia during that state’s unfolding second wave of COVID-19 infections is presented.