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Steps towards incorporating heterogeneities into program theory: A case study of a data-driven approach

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  • Sridharan, Sanjeev
  • Jones, Bobby
  • Caudill, Barry
  • Nakaima, April

Abstract

This paper describes a framework that can help refine program theory through data explorations and stakeholder dialogue. The framework incorporates the following steps: a recognition that program implementation might need to be multi-phased for a number of interventions, the need to take stock of program theory, the application of pattern recognition methods to help identify heterogeneous program mechanisms, and stakeholder dialogue to refine the program. As part of the data exploration, a method known as developmental trajectories is implemented to learn about heterogeneous trajectories of outcomes in longitudinal evaluations. This method identifies trajectory clusters and also can estimate different treatment impacts for the various groups. The framework is highlighted with data collected in an evaluation of an alcohol risk-reduction program delivered in a college fraternity setting. The framework discussed in the paper is informed by a realist focus on “what works for whom under what contexts.” The utility of the framework in contributing to a dialogue on heterogeneous mechanism and subsequent implementation is described. The connection of the ideas in paper to a ‘learning through principled discovery’ approach is also described.

Suggested Citation

  • Sridharan, Sanjeev & Jones, Bobby & Caudill, Barry & Nakaima, April, 2016. "Steps towards incorporating heterogeneities into program theory: A case study of a data-driven approach," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 88-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:epplan:v:58:y:2016:i:c:p:88-97
    DOI: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2016.05.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luc Anselin & Sanjeev Sridharan & Susan Gholston, 2007. "Using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to Leverage Social Indicator Databases: The Discovery of Interesting Patterns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 82(2), pages 287-309, June.
    2. Amelia M. Haviland & Bobby L. Jones & Daniel S. Nagin, 2011. "Group-based Trajectory Modeling Extended to Account for Nonrandom Participant Attrition," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 40(2), pages 367-390, May.
    3. Bobby L. Jones & Daniel S. Nagin, 2007. "Advances in Group-Based Trajectory Modeling and an SAS Procedure for Estimating Them," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 35(4), pages 542-571, May.
    4. Djebbari, Habiba & Smith, Jeffrey, 2008. "Heterogeneous impacts in PROGRESA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 64-80, July.
    5. Sterman, J.D., 2006. "Learning from evidence in a complex world," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(3), pages 505-514.
    6. Bobby L. Jones & Daniel S. Nagin & Kathryn Roeder, 2001. "A SAS Procedure Based on Mixture Models for Estimating Developmental Trajectories," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 29(3), pages 374-393, February.
    7. Sridharan, Sanjeev & Nakaima, April, 2011. "Ten steps to making evaluation matter," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 135-146, May.
    8. Amelia Haviland & Daniel Nagin, 2005. "Causal inferences with group based trajectory models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 557-578, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sridharan, Sanjeev & Nakaima, April, 2023. "Learning from experiences of evaluators implementing theory-driven evaluations in diverse settings: Building on the contributions of John Mayne," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Nakaima, April & Sridharan, Sanjeev & Gibson, Rachael, 2023. "Towards an evolutionary approach to learning from assumptions: Lessons from the evaluation of Dancing with Parkinson’s," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Sridharan, Sanjeev & Nakaima, April, 2020. "Valuing and embracing complexity: How an understanding of complex interventions needs to shape our evaluation capacities building initiatives," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Myrta Kohler & Hanna Mayer & Jürg Kesselring & Susi Saxer, 2020. "Urinary incontinence in stroke survivors – Development of a programme theory," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(15-16), pages 3089-3096, August.

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