IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/socmed/v291y2021ics0277953621007930.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Spooner, Fiona
  • Abrams, Jesse F.
  • Morrissey, Karyn
  • Shaddick, Gavin
  • Batty, Michael
  • Milton, Richard
  • Dennett, Adam
  • Lomax, Nik
  • Malleson, Nick
  • Nelissen, Natalie
  • Coleman, Alex
  • Nur, Jamil
  • Jin, Ying
  • Greig, Rory
  • Shenton, Charlie
  • Birkin, Mark

Abstract

A large evidence base demonstrates that the outcomes of COVID-19 and national and local interventions are not distributed equally across different communities. The need to inform policies and mitigation measures aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19 highlights the need to understand the complex links between our daily activities and COVID-19 transmission that reflect the characteristics of British society. As a result of a partnership between academic and private sector researchers, we introduce a novel data driven modelling framework together with a computationally efficient approach to running complex simulation models of this type. We demonstrate the power and spatial flexibility of the framework to assess the effects of different interventions in a case study where the effects of the first UK national lockdown are estimated for the county of Devon. Here we find that an earlier lockdown is estimated to result in a lower peak in COVID-19 cases and 47% fewer infections overall during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The framework we outline here will be crucial in gaining a greater understanding of the effects of policy interventions in different areas and within different populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Spooner, Fiona & Abrams, Jesse F. & Morrissey, Karyn & Shaddick, Gavin & Batty, Michael & Milton, Richard & Dennett, Adam & Lomax, Nik & Malleson, Nick & Nelissen, Natalie & Coleman, Alex & Nur, Jamil, 2021. "A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:291:y:2021:i:c:s0277953621007930
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114461
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953621007930
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114461?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Madhav K. C. & Evrim Oral & Susanne Straif-Bourgeois & Ariane L Rung & Edward S Peters, 2020. "The effect of area deprivation on COVID-19 risk in Louisiana," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Wee Chian Koh & Lin Naing & Liling Chaw & Muhammad Ali Rosledzana & Mohammad Fathi Alikhan & Sirajul Adli Jamaludin & Faezah Amin & Asiah Omar & Alia Shazli & Matthew Griffith & Roberta Pastore & Just, 2020. "What do we know about SARS-CoV-2 transmission? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the secondary attack rate and associated risk factors," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Robin Lovelace & Mark Birkin & Dimitris Ballas & Eveline van Leeuwen, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Iterative Proportional Fitting for Spatial Microsimulation: New Tests for an Established Technique," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21.
    4. Robert Tanton, 2018. "Spatial Microsimulation: Developments and Potential Future Directions," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 143-161.
    5. Alberto Aleta & David Martín-Corral & Ana Pastore y Piontti & Marco Ajelli & Maria Litvinova & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Ira M. Longini Jr & Stefano Merler & Alex Pen, 2020. "Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(9), pages 964-971, September.
    6. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    7. Simon N. Wood & Natalya Pya & Benjamin Säfken, 2016. "Smoothing Parameter and Model Selection for General Smooth Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1548-1563, October.
    8. Michael Batty & Richard Milton, 2021. "A new framework for very large-scale urban modelling," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(15), pages 3071-3094, November.
    9. Dureau, Joseph & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Baguelin, Marc, 2013. "Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic using stochastic dynamical systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 41749, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Karyn Morrissey & Graham Clarke & Paul Williamson & Antoinette Daly & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2015. "Mental Illness in Ireland: Simulating its Geographical Prevalence and the Role of Access to Services," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(2), pages 338-353, April.
    11. Simon McNamara & John Holmes & Abigail K. Stevely & Aki Tsuchiya, 2020. "How averse are the UK general public to inequalities in health between socioeconomic groups? A systematic review," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(2), pages 275-285, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rosalind Wallace & Rachel Franklin & Susan Grant-Muller & Alison Heppenstall & Victoria Houlden, 2022. "Estimating the social and spatial impacts of Covid mitigation strategies in United Kingdom regions: synthetic data and dashboards [Developing a sustainable exit strategy for COVID-19: health, econo," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 15(3), pages 683-702.
    2. Thompson, Jason & McClure, Roderick & Scott, Nick & Hellard, Margaret & Abeysuriya, Romesh & Vidinaarachichi, Rajith & Thwaites, John & Lazarus, Jeffrey V & Michie, Susan & Bullen, Christopher Roy Pro, 2021. "A framework for communicating the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health," SocArXiv 2duk5_v1, Center for Open Science.
    3. Thompson, Jason & McClure, Roderick & Scott, Nick & Hellard, Margaret & Abeysuriya, Romesh & Vidinaarachichi, Rajith & Thwaites, John & Lazarus, Jeffrey & Michie, Susan & Bullen, Chris, 2021. "A framework for communicating the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health," SocArXiv 2duk5, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morrissey, Karyn & Spooner, Fiona & Salter, James & Shaddick, Gavin, 2021. "Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: The impact of government policy in England," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    2. Robson, Matthew & O’Donnell, Owen & Van Ourti, Tom, 2024. "Aversion to health inequality — Pure, income-related and income-caused," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Neeraj Kaushal & Ashley N. Muchow, 2021. "Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1445-1472, October.
    4. Susan M. Rogers & James Rineer & Matthew D. Scruggs & William D. Wheaton & Phillip C. Cooley & Douglas J. Roberts & Diane K. Wagener, 2014. "A Geospatial Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Household Population Projections," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(2), pages 119-146.
    5. Andrew G. Atkeson & Karen A. Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2024. "Four Stylized Facts About Covid‐19," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 3-42, February.
    6. Thomas Ash & Antonio M. Bento & Daniel Kaffine & Akhil Rao & Ana I. Bento, 2022. "Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Victor W. Chu & Raymond K. Wong & Chi-Hung Chi & Wei Zhou & Ivan Ho, 2017. "The design of a cloud-based tracker platform based on system-of-systems service architecture," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 1283-1299, December.
    8. Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks," NBER Working Papers 27218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Khan, Hasib & Ibrahim, Muhammad & Abdel-Aty, Abdel-Haleem & Khashan, M. Motawi & Khan, Farhat Ali & Khan, Aziz, 2021. "A fractional order Covid-19 epidemic model with Mittag-Leffler kernel," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    10. Amy K Feehan & Kara D Denstel & Peter T Katzmarzyk & Cruz Velasco & Jeffrey H Burton & Eboni G Price-Haywood & Leonardo Seoane, 2021. "Community versus individual risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in two municipalities of Louisiana, USA: An assessment of Area Deprivation Index (ADI) paired with seroprevalence data over time," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-11, November.
    11. Wouter Vermeer & Otto Koppius & Peter Vervest, 2018. "The Radiation-Transmission-Reception (RTR) model of propagation: Implications for the effectiveness of network interventions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Phillip Stroud & Sara Del Valle & Stephen Sydoriak & Jane Riese & Susan Mniszewski, 2007. "Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(4), pages 1-9.
    13. Caixia Wang & Huijie Li, 2022. "Public Compliance Matters in Evidence-Based Public Health Policy: Evidence from Evaluating Social Distancing in the First Wave of COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-13, March.
    14. Umit Cirakli & Ibrahim Dogan & Mehmet Gozlu, 2022. "The Relationship Between COVID-19 Cases and COVID-19 Testing: a Panel Data Analysis on OECD Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(3), pages 1737-1750, September.
    15. Dorsa Alipour & Hussein Dia, 2023. "A Systematic Review of the Role of Land Use, Transport, and Energy-Environment Integration in Shaping Sustainable Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-29, April.
    16. Krista Ruffini & Aaron Sojourner & Abigail Wozniak, 2021. "Who'S In And Who'S Out Under Workplace Covid Symptom Screening?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 614-641, March.
    17. Lin Ma & Gil Shapira & Damien de Walque & Quy‐Toan Do & Jed Friedman & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2022. "The Intergenerational Mortality Trade‐Off Of Covid‐19 Lockdown Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1427-1468, August.
    18. Philipp Ager & Katherine Eriksson & Ezra Karger & Peter Nencka & Melissa A. Thomasson, 2024. "School Closures during the 1918 Flu Pandemic," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 266-276, January.
    19. Christopher Bronk Ramsey, 2020. "Human agency and infection rates: Implications for social distancing during epidemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, December.
    20. Zhang, Bowen & Rees, Griffith & Solomon, Guy & Wilson, Alan, 2023. "Input-output analytics for urban systems: explorations in policy and planning," SocArXiv sruq7_v1, Center for Open Science.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:291:y:2021:i:c:s0277953621007930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/315/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.