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From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden: The Impact of Population Ageing on Economic Growth in Europe

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  • Nicole Van Der Gaag
  • Joop Beer

Abstract

In the coming years, the share of the working-age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the European Union. All other things remaining equal, this so-called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the Europe 2020 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on economic growth differs between EU countries and between urban and rural regions. The results show that raising employment rates to the Europe 2020 targets can restore positive opportunities for economic growth, but not in all countries and only to a limited extent. They also show that even though urban and rural regions differ in terms of population growth and growth of the working age population, the prospects for demographic burden are highly similar for both types of regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Van Der Gaag & Joop Beer, 2015. "From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden: The Impact of Population Ageing on Economic Growth in Europe," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 106(1), pages 94-109, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:tvecsg:v:106:y:2015:i:1:p:94-109
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/tesg.12104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Xuyang & Mohd, Saidatulakmal, 2024. "Urban–Rural heterogeneity in the effect of population ageing on the savings rate of urban and rural households in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 999-1010.
    2. Ilya Kashnitsky & Joop De Beer & Leo Van Wissen, 2020. "Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(1), pages 28-44, February.
    3. Alexandra Tsvetkova & Rudiger Ahrend & Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Alexander C. Lembcke & Polina Knutsson & Dylan Jong & Nikolaos Terzidis, 2020. "The spatial dimension of productivity: Connecting the dots across industries, firms and places," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
    4. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    5. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Ekhi Atutxa & Ricardo Aguado, 2020. "Who Is Afraid of Population Aging? Myths, Challenges and an Open Question from the Civil Economy Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Diana Gutiérrez Posada & Fernando Rubiera Morollón & Ana Viñuela, 2018. "Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 109(3), pages 332-349, July.
    7. P. C. Albuquerque, 2015. "Demographics and the Portuguese economic growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/17, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Adegoke Oke & Anand Nair, 2023. "From chaos to creation: The mutual causality between supply chain disruption and innovation in low‐income markets," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 59(3), pages 20-41, July.
    9. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Latjin, Mirani, 2022. "The effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in EU economies: A panel vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 113596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wen-Yi Chen, 2017. "Demographic structure and monetary policy effectiveness: evidence from Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2521-2544, November.
    11. Debelak, Katja & Penger, Sandra & Grah, Barbara, 2022. "Leadership in an Ageing Society and the Brain: Applying Neuroscience to Leadership," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2022), Hybrid Conference, Opatija, Croatia, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Hybrid Conference, Opatija, Croatia, 17-18 June 2022, pages 64-79, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    12. Malik Manzoor Ahmad & Singh S. P. & Pattanaik Falguni, 2022. "Economics of Healthy Aging in India: A Multidimensional Perspective," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Pengkun Wu & Chong Wu & Yuanyuan Wu, 2018. "Reforming Path of China’s Fertility Policy in Stabilizing Demographic Dividends Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 1225-1243, June.

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