IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/tvecsg/v106y2015i1p94-109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden: The Impact of Population Ageing on Economic Growth in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Nicole Van Der Gaag
  • Joop Beer

Abstract

In the coming years, the share of the working-age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the European Union. All other things remaining equal, this so-called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the Europe 2020 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on economic growth differs between EU countries and between urban and rural regions. The results show that raising employment rates to the Europe 2020 targets can restore positive opportunities for economic growth, but not in all countries and only to a limited extent. They also show that even though urban and rural regions differ in terms of population growth and growth of the working age population, the prospects for demographic burden are highly similar for both types of regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Van Der Gaag & Joop Beer, 2015. "From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden: The Impact of Population Ageing on Economic Growth in Europe," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 106(1), pages 94-109, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:tvecsg:v:106:y:2015:i:1:p:94-109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/tesg.12104
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    2. T. Fent & B. Mahlberg & A. Prskawetz, 2008. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth," Springer Books, in: Florian Kohlbacher & Cornelius Herstatt (ed.), The Silver Market Phenomenon, chapter 1, pages 3-16, Springer.
    3. Bart van Ark & Vivian Chen & Kirsten Jäger, 2013. "European Productivity Growth Since 2000 and Future Prospects," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 65-83, Spring.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Population, Labour Force, and Long-term Economic Growth," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 25, McMaster University.
    5. Derek D. Headey & Andrew Hodge, 2009. "The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta‐Regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 221-248, June.
    6. Bucci, Alberto, 2008. "Population growth in a model of economic growth with human capital accumulation and horizontal R&D," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1124-1147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Du, Xuyang & Mohd, Saidatulakmal, 2024. "Urban–Rural heterogeneity in the effect of population ageing on the savings rate of urban and rural households in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 999-1010.
    2. Ilya Kashnitsky & Joop De Beer & Leo Van Wissen, 2020. "Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(1), pages 28-44, February.
    3. Alexandra Tsvetkova & Rudiger Ahrend & Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Alexander C. Lembcke & Polina Knutsson & Dylan Jong & Nikolaos Terzidis, 2020. "The spatial dimension of productivity: Connecting the dots across industries, firms and places," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
    4. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    5. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Ekhi Atutxa & Ricardo Aguado, 2020. "Who Is Afraid of Population Aging? Myths, Challenges and an Open Question from the Civil Economy Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Diana Gutiérrez Posada & Fernando Rubiera Morollón & Ana Viñuela, 2018. "Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 109(3), pages 332-349, July.
    7. P. C. Albuquerque, 2015. "Demographics and the Portuguese economic growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/17, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Adegoke Oke & Anand Nair, 2023. "From chaos to creation: The mutual causality between supply chain disruption and innovation in low‐income markets," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 59(3), pages 20-41, July.
    9. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Latjin, Mirani, 2022. "The effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in EU economies: A panel vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 113596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wen-Yi Chen, 2017. "Demographic structure and monetary policy effectiveness: evidence from Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2521-2544, November.
    11. Debelak, Katja & Penger, Sandra & Grah, Barbara, 2022. "Leadership in an Ageing Society and the Brain: Applying Neuroscience to Leadership," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2022), Hybrid Conference, Opatija, Croatia, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Hybrid Conference, Opatija, Croatia, 17-18 June 2022, pages 64-79, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    12. Malik Manzoor Ahmad & Singh S. P. & Pattanaik Falguni, 2022. "Economics of Healthy Aging in India: A Multidimensional Perspective," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Pengkun Wu & Chong Wu & Yuanyuan Wu, 2018. "Reforming Path of China’s Fertility Policy in Stabilizing Demographic Dividends Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 1225-1243, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shrabani Saha & Kunal Sen, 2019. "The corruption-growth relationship: Do political institutions matter?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    3. Katharina Frosch, 2009. "Do only new brooms sweep clean? A review on workforce age and innovation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-005, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Richter, Doreen, 2014. "Demographic change and innovation: The ongoing challenge from the diversity of the labor force," management revue - Socio-Economic Studies, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 25(3), pages 166-184.
    5. Richter, Doreen, 2014. "Demographic change and innovation: The ongoing challenge from the diversity of the labor force," management revue. Socio-economic Studies, Rainer Hampp Verlag, vol. 25(3), pages 166-184.
    6. Wongboonsin, Kua & Phiromswad, Piyachart, 2017. "Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 364-379.
    7. P. C. Albuquerque, 2015. "Demographics and the Portuguese economic growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/17, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "What are the drivers of TFP in the Aging Economy? Aging labor and ICT capital," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 201-211.
    9. William Scarth, 2003. "Population Aging, Productivity, and Growth in Living Standards," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 90, McMaster University.
    10. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2021. "The Openness Hypothesis in the Context of Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Moderating Role of Trade Dynamics on FDI," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 336-359, July.
    11. Okoampah, Sarah, 2016. "Cohort size effects on wages, working status, and work time," Ruhr Economic Papers 629, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Aurore Gary & Mathilde Maurel, 2015. "Donors’ Policy Consistency and Economic Growth," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 511-551, November.
    13. Palm, Alvar & Lantz, Björn, 2020. "Information dissemination and residential solar PV adoption rates: The effect of an information campaign in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. repec:wly:econjl:v::y:2017:i:605:p:f236-f265 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    16. Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom & Andrew J. Scott & Rainer Franz Kotschy, 2024. "On the Limits of Chronological Age," CESifo Working Paper Series 11451, CESifo.
    17. Sulekha Hembram & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2019. "Beta, sigma and club convergence: Indian experience from 1980 to 2015," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 343-366, December.
    18. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Financial Access and Value Added in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence from the Agricultural, Manufacturing and Service Sectors," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/009, African Governance and Development Institute..
    19. Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2011. "Immigration and growth in an ageing economy - version 2," MERIT Working Papers 2011-037, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    20. Stephan Brunow & Georg Hirte, 2009. "The age pattern of human capital and regional productivity: A spatial econometric study on german regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 799-823, November.
    21. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:tvecsg:v:106:y:2015:i:1:p:94-109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0040-747X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.