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A new perspective on population aging

Author

Listed:
  • Warren C. Sanderson

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Sergei Scherbov

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is a measure of how many years a person has already lived. In contrast, our new approach to measuring age is concerned about the future. In this paper, we first explore our new age measure in detail and show, using an analytic formulation, historical data, and forecasts, that it is, in most cases, insensitive to whether it is measured using period or cohort life tables. We, then, show, using new forward-looking definitions of median age and the old age dependency ratio, how combining the traditional age concept and our new one enhances our understanding of population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2007. "A new perspective on population aging," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(2), pages 27-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:16:y:2007:i:2
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the “Red Herring”," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
    4. Zhou Yang & Edward C. Norton & Sally C. Stearns, 2003. "Longevity and Health Care Expenditures," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 58(1), pages 2-10.
    5. Shiro Horiuchi, 2005. "Tempo effect on age-specific death rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(8), pages 189-200.
    6. John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2002. "How Long Do We Live?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 13-29, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population forecasting; aging; historical demography; life expectancy; prospective age; median age;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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