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Rational Expectations and Inflation (Third Edition)

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Sargent

    (New York University)

Abstract

This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent's 2011 Nobel lecture, "United States Then, Europe Now." It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Sargent, 2013. "Rational Expectations and Inflation (Third Edition)," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 10000.
    • Handle: RePEc:pup:pbooks:10000
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2015. "A History of U.S. Debt Limits," NBER Working Papers 21799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tamara Peneva Todorova & Brikena Myftarallari, 2024. "Factors Determining the Average Price Level: A Combined Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut & Trienens, Lasse, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302351, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2024.
    4. Silver, Steven D. & Raseta, Marko & Bazarova, Alina, 2023. "Stochastic resonance in the recovery of signal from agent price expectations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Steven D. Silver & Marko Raseta, 2021. "An ARFIMA multi-level model of dual-component expectations in repeated cross-sectional survey data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 683-699, February.
    6. Emilio Ocampo, 2023. "Dollarization as an Effective Commitment Device: The Case of Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 848, Universidad del CEMA.
    7. Goutsmedt, Aurélien, 2019. "Macroeconomics at the Crossroads: Stagflation and the Struggle between "Keynesian" and New Classical Macroeconometric Programs," OSF Preprints y364t, Center for Open Science.
    8. 子, 鬼谷, 2022. "Humanoid psychological sentiments and enigma of investment," OSF Preprints rm9gu, Center for Open Science.
    9. Jevtic, Aleksandar R., 2020. "Gold rush: The political economy of gold standard adoption in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia," eabh Papers 20-02, The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH).
    10. Vitor Gaspar, 2014. "The Making of a Continental Financial System: Lessons for Europe from Early American History," IMF Working Papers 2014/183, International Monetary Fund.

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