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To change or not to change The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélien Goutsmedt

    (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, FNRS - Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles])

  • Francesco Sergi

    (UPE - Université Paris-Est, LIPHA - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire d'étude du Politique Hannah Arendt Paris-Est - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel)

  • Béatrice Cherrier

    (ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • François Claveau

    (UdeS - Université de Sherbrooke, CIRST - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche sur la science et la technologie - UdeM - Université de Montréal - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal)

  • Clément Fontan

    (Université Saint-Louis - Bruxelles, UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Juan Acosta

    (Univalle - Universidad del Valle [Cali])

Abstract

Why do policymakers and economists within a policymaking institution choose to throw away a model and to develop an alternative one? Why do they choose to stick to an existing model? This article contributes to the literature on the history and philosophy of modelling by answering these questions. It delves into the dynamics of persistence, change, and building practices of macroeconomic modelling, using the case of forecasting models at the Bank of England (1974-2014). Based on archives and interviews, we document the multiple factors at play in model building and model change. We identify three sets of factors: the agency of modellers, institutional factors, and the material factor. Our investigation shows the diversity of explanations behind the decision to change a model: each time, model replacement resulted from a different combination of the three types of factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Goutsmedt & Francesco Sergi & Béatrice Cherrier & François Claveau & Clément Fontan & Juan Acosta, 2024. "To change or not to change The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England," Post-Print hal-04181871, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04181871
    DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2024.2303113
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04181871v2
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    Cited by:

    1. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco, 2024. "Redefining Scientisation: Central Banks between Science and Politics," SocArXiv dxvfp, Center for Open Science.
    2. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2023. "Multi-country modelling at the commission of the European communities: Centralised and decentralised approaches," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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    Keywords

    Central bank; Forecasting; Macroeconomic modeling; Bank of England; Models;
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