IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nsr/niesrd/465.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Linking Retirement Age to Life Expectancy in a Bismarckian System - The Case of Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Valentin Vogt
  • Jörg Althammer

Abstract

In times of decreasing mortality, one way to stabilise a PAYG pension system is to interrelate the retirement age to the anticipated average lifespan. This paper investigates two approaches for Germany: one is to keep the average retirement duration constant, the other to define a constant share of the total lifespan for the retirement period. Our simulation model uses a Leslie matrix population projection, a Solow-Swan growth model and a detailed calculation of the German pension insurance budget. Our results show quite a significant impact on the insurance level and a rather small effect on the contribution rate, which is characteristic of a Bismarckian system.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Vogt & Jörg Althammer, 2016. "Linking Retirement Age to Life Expectancy in a Bismarckian System - The Case of Germany," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 465, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:465
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/DP465-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Werding & Herbert Hofmann, 2008. "Projections Regarding the Long-term Sustainability of Public Finances," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 30, May.
    2. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Publishing.
    3. Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Christina Benita Wilke, 2008. "Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen: Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten," MEA discussion paper series 08159, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Wilke, Christina, 2008. "Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen: Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-44, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. Holthausen, Annette & Rausch, Johannes & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2012. "MEA-PENSIM 2.0: Weiterentwicklung eines Rentensimulationsmodells, Konzeption und ausgewählte Anwendungen," MEA discussion paper series 201203, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    6. repec:mea:meawpa:12254 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bernhard Babel & Eckart Bomsdorf & Rafael Schmidt, 2008. "Forecasting German mortality using panel data procedures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 541-555, July.
    8. Werding, Martin, 2014. "Demographischer Wandel und öffentliche Finanzen: Langfrist-Projektionen 2014-2060 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Rentenreform-Pakets der Bundesregierung," Working Papers 01/2014, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    9. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2008. "Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen : Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten," Papers 08-44, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    10. Werding, Martin, 2011. "Demographie und öffentliche Haushalte: Simulationen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der gesamtstaatlichen Finanzpolitik in Deutschland," Working Papers 03/2011, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    11. Jakob von Weizsäcker & Martin Werding, 2002. "Demographiefest: Rentenfinanzen und Lebenserwartung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(11), pages 42-45, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan Valentin Vogt, 2017. "Alternating Migration Flows and their Age-Structure Effects on the Long-Term Sustainability of the German Statutory Pension Insurance," EcoMod2017 10369, EcoMod.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    2. Kallweit Manuel, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse / Pension Reform and Endogenous Retirement – a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.
    3. Jan Valentin Vogt, 2017. "Alternating Migration Flows and their Age-Structure Effects on the Long-Term Sustainability of the German Statutory Pension Insurance," EcoMod2017 10369, EcoMod.
    4. Werding, Martin & Runschke, Benedikt & Schwarz, Milena, 2024. "Alterungsschub und Rentenreform: Simulationen für GRV und Beamtenversorgung," Working Papers 01/2024, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. Werding, Martin, 2011. "Demographie und öffentliche Haushalte: Simulationen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der gesamtstaatlichen Finanzpolitik in Deutschland," Working Papers 03/2011, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    6. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    7. Martin Werding & Timo Hener, 2011. "Langfristige Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Modellrechnungen bis 2060 ; Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53.
    8. Martin Werding & Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Sustainability of Public Finances in Germany: Simulations for the Medium and Long Run," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64.
    9. Werding, Martin, 2016. "Rentenfinanzierung im demographischen Wandel: Tragfähigkeitsprobleme und Handlungsoptionen," Working Papers 05/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    10. Ehing, Daniel & Moog, Stefan, 2012. "Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060," FZG Discussion Papers 51, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    11. Raddatz, Guido, 2015. "Mehr Arbeit wagen," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 129, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    12. Daniel Ehing & Stefan Moog, 2013. "Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060 [Labor force- and work volume-projections until 2060]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 46(2), pages 167-182, August.
    13. Martin O’Brien, 2011. "Discouraged Older Male Workers and the Discouraged Worker Effect," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 14(3), pages 217-235.
    14. A. Bovenberg, 2005. "Balancing Work and Family Life during the Life Course," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(4), pages 399-423, December.
    15. repec:ilo:ilowps:386486 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kirsten Stam & Ellen Verbakel & Paul Graaf, 2014. "Do Values Matter? The Impact of Work Ethic and Traditional Gender Role Values on Female Labour Market Supply," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 593-610, April.
    17. Martin Werding & Klaus Gründler & Benjamin Läpple & Robert Lehmann & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Spielt sie noch eine Rolle?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(09), pages 53-58, September.
    18. Mathieu Lefébvre & Pierre Pestieau, 2006. "The Generosity of the Welfare State Towards the Elderly," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Dimitri B. Papadimitriou (ed.), The Distributional Effects of Government Spending and Taxation, chapter 10, pages 289-301, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Walter Krämer, 2016. "Die demografische Zeitbombe: Ursachen und Folgen der Kinderlosigkeit [The upcoming demographic disaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 10(4), pages 305-323, December.
    20. Martin O'BRIEN, 2010. "Older male labour force participation in OECD countries: Pension reform and “the reserve army of labour”," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 149(3), pages 239-259, September.
    21. Pierre Cahuc, 2005. "Le difficile retour en emploi des seniors," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 3-56.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library & Information Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.