IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxecpp/v73y2021i2p623-643..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Grigoli
  • Zsoka Koczan
  • Petia Topalova

Abstract

Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously. Yet, advanced economies experienced different trajectories in labor force participation rates and workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort model for 17 advanced economies during 1985–2016, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations, especially for women. New cohorts of women led to upward shifts in the age participation profile. However, this process plateaued in most countries, with signs of reversal in some. We project sizable declines in participation rates over the next three decades, with aggregate participation forecast to decline by 5.5 percentage points for the median advanced economy. Illustrative simulations show that closing gender gaps, extending working lives, and implementing policies encouraging labor supply can help attenuate, but may not fully offset, demographic pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2021. "A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 623-643.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:73:y:2021:i:2:p:623-643.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpaa027
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 69-154.
    2. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Publishing.
    3. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2018. "Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2018/150, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    5. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Balleer, Almut & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Turunen, Jarkko, 2009. "Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis," Working Paper Series 1049, European Central Bank.
    7. Benedict J. Clements & Kamil Dybczak & Vitor Gaspar & Sanjeev Gupta & Mauricio Soto, 2015. "The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/21, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Bruce Fallick & Jonathan F. Pingle, 2006. "A cohort-based model of labor force participation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2017. "Labor Force Participation in Chile: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects," IMF Working Papers 2017/054, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Dijk, Mathijs A. & van Dalen, Hendrik P. & Hyde, Martin, 2020. "Who bears the brunt? The impact of banking crises on younger and older workers," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    2. Das, Mitali & Hilgenstock, Benjamin, 2022. "The exposure to routinization: Labor market implications for developed and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 99-113.
    3. Hina Amber & Bezawit Beyene Chichaibelu, 2023. "Patterns and Causes of Female Labor Force Participation: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis for Pakistan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-31, April.
    4. Paweł A. Strzelecki, 2019. "Health, disability and labor force participation trends in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 31-53.
    5. Michael Callaghan & Jamie Culling & Finn Robinson, 2018. "Ageing is a drag: Projecting labour force participation in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2018. "Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 265, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    2. Almut Balleer & Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Jarkko Turunen, 2014. "Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1385-1415, June.
    3. Ross Richardson & Lia Pacelli & Ambra Poggi & Matteo Richiardi, 2018. "Female Labour Force Projections Using Microsimulation for Six EU Countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(2), pages 5-51.
    4. Jin Young Lee, 2014. "The Plateau in U.S. Women's Labor Force Participation: A Cohort Analysis," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 46-71, January.
    5. Stephen Byrne & Martin D. O’Brien, 2017. "Understanding Irish Labour Force Participation," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(1), pages 27-60.
    6. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
    7. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04," Working Papers 53616, Congressional Budget Office.
    8. Bruce Fallick & Charles Fleischman & Jonathan Pingle, 2010. "The Effect of Population Aging on the Aggregate Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 377-417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Masao Fukui & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2023. "Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 269-313, January.
    10. Balleer, Almut & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Turunen, Jarkko, 2009. "Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis," Working Paper Series 1049, European Central Bank.
    11. Claudia Münch & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2009. "Education and Labor Market Activity of Women: An Age-Group Specific Empirical Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-099/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Francisco Perez-Arce & Maria J. Prados & Tarra Kohli, 2018. "The Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Working Papers wp385, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    13. Danny Yagan, 2019. "Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2505-2558.
    14. Sudipto Banerjee & David Blau, 2016. "Employment Trends by Age in the United States: Why Are Older Workers Different?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 163-199.
    15. Christian vom Lehn & Eric Fisher & Aspen Gorry, 2018. "Male Labor Supply and Generational Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 121-149, April.
    16. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    17. Giovanni Razzu & Carl Singleton & Mark Mitchell, 2020. "On why the gender employment gap in Britain has stalled since the early 1990s," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 476-501, November.
    18. Michael Callaghan & Jamie Culling & Finn Robinson, 2018. "Ageing is a drag: Projecting labour force participation in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    19. Robert A. Moffitt, 2012. "The Reveral of the Employment-Population Ratio in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 201-264.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:73:y:2021:i:2:p:623-643.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/oep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.