IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/spaper/2387.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen : Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten

Author

Listed:
  • Bucher-Koenen, Tabea
  • Wilke, Christina Benita

Abstract

Die Anhebung des Regelrentenalters ist ein weiterer Schritt im Rahmen der Reformen der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung in Deutschland. Die Wirkung dieser Maßnahme hängt entscheidend vom Reaktionsverhalten der betroffenen Erwerbstätigen ab. In diesem Beitrag simulieren wir die langfristigen finanziellen Auswirkungen der Altersgrenzenanhebung bis 2050 abhängig vom Reaktionsverhalten der Betroffenen und unter Berücksichtigung von Rückkopplungseffekten mit dem Arbeitsmarkt. Insgesamt führt die Altersgrenzenanhebung zu einem geringeren Anstieg des Beitragssatzes sowie einem geringeren Rückgang des Rentenniveaus. Je nach Veränderung des Renteneintrittsverhaltens liegt der Effekt bis 2050 zwischen 0,7 und 1,0 Beitragssatzpunkte bzw. 0,8 bis 1,1 Prozentpunkten des Bruttorentenniveaus. Auf der individuellen Ebene kann ein Rückgang des Alterseinkommens deutlich durch eine Anpassung des Erwerbsverhaltens beeinflusst werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2008. "Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen : Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten," Papers 08-44, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2387/1/dp08_44.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 393-421, September.
    2. Martin Werding, 2007. "Versicherungsmathematisch korrekte Rentenabschläge für die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(16), pages 19-32, August.
    3. Clemens, Johannes, 2006. "Anmerkungen zur geplanten Anhebung des gesetzlichen Rentenalters," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 86(3), pages 163-167.
    4. Berkel, Barbara & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-62, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. Axel Boersch-Supan & Christina B. Wilke, 2004. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," NBER Working Papers 10525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Johannes Clemens, 2007. "Anhebung der Regelaltersgrenze und Abschläge bei vorzeitigem Renteneintritt," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 87(12), pages 835-840, December.
    7. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Christina B. Wilke, 2007. "Szenarien zur mittel- und langfristigen Entwicklung der Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen und der Erwerbstätigen in Deutschland," MEA discussion paper series 07153, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    8. Reinhard Hujer & Bernd Fitzenberger & Reinhold Schnabel & Thomas E. MaCurdy, 2001. "Testing for uniform wage trends in West-Germany: A cohort analysis using quantile regressions for censored data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 41-86.
    9. Christina Benita Wilke, 2005. "Rates of Return of the German PAYG System - How they can be measured and how they will develop," MEA discussion paper series 05097, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    10. Christina Benita Wilke, 2004. "Ein Simulationsmodell des Rentenversicherungssystems: Konzeption und ausgewählte Anwendungen von MEA-PENSIM," MEA discussion paper series 04048, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valentin Vogt & Jörg Althammer, 2016. "Linking Retirement Age to Life Expectancy in a Bismarckian System - The Case of Germany," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 465, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Kallweit Manuel, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse / Pension Reform and Endogenous Retirement – a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christina Benita Wilke, 2008. "On the feasibility of notional defined contribution systems: The German case," MEA discussion paper series 08165, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Christina Benita Wilke, 2005. "Rates of Return of the German PAYG System - How they can be measured and how they will develop," MEA discussion paper series 05097, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Pfister, Mona & Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Calculation of pension entitlements in the sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201801_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2007. "How an Unfunded Pension System looks like Defined Benefits but works like Defined Contributions: The German Pension Reform," MEA discussion paper series 07126, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    5. Barbara Engels & Johannes Geyer & Peter Haan, 2016. "Pension Incentives and Early Retirement," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1617, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Kallweit Manuel, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse / Pension Reform and Endogenous Retirement – a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.
    7. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?," MEA discussion paper series 05085, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    8. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform : how well prepared are the Germans?," Papers 05-19, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    9. Lorenz, Svenja & Pfister, Mona & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Identification of the statutory retirement dates in the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201808_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 781-863, Elsevier.
    11. repec:iab:iabfme:201801(en is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Engels, Barbara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2017. "Pension incentives and early retirement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 216-231.
    13. Andreas Thiemann, 2015. "Pension Wealth and Maternal Employment: Evidence from a Reform of the German Child Care Pension Benefit," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1499, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Martin Hering, 2008. "Grand Coalitions for Unpopular Reforms: Building a Cross-Party Consensus to Raise the Retirement Age," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 233, McMaster University.
    15. Axel Börsch-Supan & Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Michela Coppola & Bettina Lamla, 2015. "Savings In Times Of Demographic Change: Lessons From The German Experience," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 807-829, September.
    16. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2012. "Wie gut können wir die Folgen des demographischen Wandels abschätzen? Was ist sicher? Wozu brauchen wir bessere Daten?," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 6(1), pages 65-82, December.
    17. Timm Bönke & Markus M. Grabka & Carsten Schröder & Edward N. Wolff & Lennard Zyska, 2019. "The Joint Distribution of Net Worth and Pension Wealth in Germany," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(4), pages 834-871, December.
    18. Antje Mertens & Laura Romeu-Gordo, 2023. "Retirement in Western Germany – How Workplace Tasks Influence Its Timing," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 37(2), pages 467-485, April.
    19. Boockmann, Bernhard & Fries, Jan & Göbel, Christian, 2018. "Specific measures for older employees and late career employment," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 159-174.
    20. Gasche, Martin, 2012. "Alte und neue Wege zur Berechnung der Rentenabschläge," MEA discussion paper series 201201, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    21. Barbara Berkel, 2006. "Retirement Age and Preretirement in German Administrative Data," MEA discussion paper series 06107, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Katharina Rautenberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.