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Trade Policy Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle Handley

    (School of Global Policy & Strategy, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA)

  • Nuno Limão

    (Economics Department, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA)

Abstract

Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has become an important source of economic uncertainty and research. We review the main sources and measures of TPU. We then provide a conceptual framework for modeling TPU and methods for estimating and quantifying its effects. We analyze its role in trade agreements and discuss open questions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2022. "Trade Policy Uncertainty," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 363-395, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:14:y:2022:p:363-395
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-021622-020416
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson, 2023. "Agriculture's globalization: Endowments, technologies, tastes and policies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1314-1352, September.
    2. Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    3. Anna Matzner & Birgit Meyer & Harald Oberhofer, 2023. "Trade in times of uncertainty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9), pages 2564-2597, September.
    4. Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2023. "Trading with friends in uncertain times," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 768-780.
    5. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
    6. Xiangxu Meng & Dian Wang, 2024. "Income Distribution Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04239322, HAL.
    8. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    9. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Effect of Aid-for-Trade Flows on Investment-Oriented Remittance Flows," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-36, February.
    10. Alejandro Graziano & Monika Sztajerowska & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2024. "Trading places: How trade policy is reshaping multinational firms’ location," Discussion Papers 2024-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    11. Yang, Cai & Zhang, Hongwei & Qin, Yun & Niu, Zibo, 2024. "Partisan conflict, trade policy uncertainty, and the energy market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2024. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 307099, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Jingjing Fan & Feng Shi & Junzhu Zhao & Jingming Zhu, 2023. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 193-211, May.
    14. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno & Ludema, Rodney D. & Yu, Zhi, 2024. "Firm input choice under trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. David Ardia & Keven Bluteau, 2024. "Optimal Text-Based Time-Series Indices," Papers 2405.10449, arXiv.org.
    16. Ruohan Wu & Mario J. Miranda, 2023. "Dynamic impacts of intermittent trade conflicts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 681-701, March.
    17. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Kiel Working Papers 2248, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    19. Haoyuan Ding & Haichao Fan & Guangyuan Guo & Guoyong Liang & Tong Qi, 2024. "Outward direct investment as a shelter from external trade policy shocks: Firm‐level investigation of the US–China trade war," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 1203-1235, November.
    20. Zhao, Xinwei & Mi, Xianhua & Ma, Chaoqun & Peng, Geng, 2023. "Measuring trade rule uncertainty and its impacts on the commodity market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    21. Chien-Chiang Lee & Farzan Yahya, 2024. "Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino-US Trade Frictions?," Working Papers DP-2023-35, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade policy; uncertainty; trade agreements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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