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Trade Policy Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle Handley
  • Nuno Limão

Abstract

Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has become an important source of economic uncertainty and research. We review the main sources and measures of TPU. We then provide a conceptual framework for modeling TPU and methods of estimating and quantifying its effects. We analyze its role in trade agreements and discuss open questions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2022. "Trade Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 29672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29672
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson, 2023. "Agriculture's globalization: Endowments, technologies, tastes and policies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1314-1352, September.
    2. Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    3. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno & Ludema, Rodney D. & Yu, Zhi, 2024. "Firm input choice under trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Haoyuan Ding & Haichao Fan & Guangyuan Guo & Guoyong Liang & Tong Qi, 2024. "Outward direct investment as a shelter from external trade policy shocks: Firm‐level investigation of the US–China trade war," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 1203-1235, November.
    5. Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2023. "Trading with friends in uncertain times," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 768-780.
    6. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who Is to Suffer? Quantifying the Impact of Sanctions on German Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 16146, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    8. Alejandro Graziano & Monika Sztajerowska & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2024. "Trading places: How trade policy is reshaping multinational firms’ location," Discussion Papers 2024-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    9. Anna Matzner & Birgit Meyer & Harald Oberhofer, 2023. "Trade in times of uncertainty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9), pages 2564-2597, September.
    10. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
    12. Xiangxu Meng & Dian Wang, 2024. "Income Distribution Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Jingjing Fan & Feng Shi & Junzhu Zhao & Jingming Zhu, 2023. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 193-211, May.
    15. Ruohan Wu & Mario J. Miranda, 2023. "Dynamic impacts of intermittent trade conflicts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 681-701, March.
    16. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2024. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 307099, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Effect of Aid-for-Trade Flows on Investment-Oriented Remittance Flows," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-36, February.
    18. Yang, Cai & Zhang, Hongwei & Qin, Yun & Niu, Zibo, 2024. "Partisan conflict, trade policy uncertainty, and the energy market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Zhao, Xinwei & Mi, Xianhua & Ma, Chaoqun & Peng, Geng, 2023. "Measuring trade rule uncertainty and its impacts on the commodity market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    20. Chien-Chiang Lee & Farzan Yahya, 2024. "Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino-US Trade Frictions?," Working Papers DP-2023-35, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    21. David Ardia & Keven Bluteau, 2024. "Optimal Text-Based Time-Series Indices," Papers 2405.10449, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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