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Trade Policy Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle Handley
  • Nuno Limão

Abstract

Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has become an important source of economic uncertainty and research. We review the main sources and measures of TPU. We then provide a conceptual framework for modeling TPU and methods of estimating and quantifying its effects. We analyze its role in trade agreements and discuss open questions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2022. "Trade Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 29672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29672
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    Cited by:

    1. Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    2. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno & Ludema, Rodney D. & Yu, Zhi, 2024. "Firm input choice under trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2023. "Trading with friends in uncertain times," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 768-780.
    4. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who Is to Suffer? Quantifying the Impact of Sanctions on German Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 16146, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Alejandro Graziano & Monika Sztajerowska & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2024. "Trading places: How trade policy is reshaping multinational firms’ location," Discussion Papers 2024-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    7. Anna Matzner & Birgit Meyer & Harald Oberhofer, 2023. "Trade in times of uncertainty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9), pages 2564-2597, September.
    8. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
    10. Xiangxu Meng & Dian Wang, 2024. "Income Distribution Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.
    11. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Jingjing Fan & Feng Shi & Junzhu Zhao & Jingming Zhu, 2023. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 193-211, May.
    13. Ruohan Wu & Mario J. Miranda, 2023. "Dynamic impacts of intermittent trade conflicts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 681-701, March.
    14. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Effect of Aid-for-Trade Flows on Investment-Oriented Remittance Flows," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-36, February.
    15. Yang, Cai & Zhang, Hongwei & Qin, Yun & Niu, Zibo, 2024. "Partisan conflict, trade policy uncertainty, and the energy market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Zhao, Xinwei & Mi, Xianhua & Ma, Chaoqun & Peng, Geng, 2023. "Measuring trade rule uncertainty and its impacts on the commodity market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Chien-Chiang Lee & Farzan Yahya, 2024. "Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino-US Trade Frictions?," Working Papers DP-2023-35, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    18. David Ardia & Keven Bluteau, 2024. "Optimal Text-Based Time-Series Indices," Papers 2405.10449, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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