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Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns

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  • Brownstone, David
  • Train, Kenneth

Abstract

We describe and apply choice models, including generalizations of logit called mixed logits, that do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property and can approximate any substitution pattern. The models are estimated on data from a stated-preference survey that elicited customers preferences among gas, electric, methanol, and CNG vehicles with various attributes.

Suggested Citation

  • Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3tb6j874, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt3tb6j874
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
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    5. Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S & Golob, Thomas F & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3sm7w9zk, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Kenneth E. Train, 1998. "Recreation Demand Models with Taste Differences over People," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 74(2), pages 230-239.
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