IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/29653.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Planning for the “Expected Unexpected”: Work and Retirement in the U.S. After the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Richard B. Freeman

Abstract

This chapter analyzes the implications of the unexpected 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic for work and retirement in the U.S. The pandemic induced the greatest loss of jobs in the shortest period of time in U.S. history. A slow economic recovery would surely have endangered work longer/retire later policies that seek to adjust the finances of Social Security retirement to an aging population. Boosted by the huge CARES (March 2020) and ARPA (April 2021) rescue packages, the early recovery from the COVID-19 recession was faster and stronger than the recovery from the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Even so, the pandemic greatly altered the job market, with workers suffering from long COVID having difficulty returning to work and more workers working from home. In its immediate effect and potential long-run impact, the pandemic recession/recovery is a wake-up call to the danger that shocks from the natural world pose to work and retirement. Realistic planning for the future of work and retirement should go beyond analyzing socioeconomic trends to analyzing expected unexpected changes from the natural world as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard B. Freeman, 2022. "Planning for the “Expected Unexpected”: Work and Retirement in the U.S. After the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock," NBER Working Papers 29653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29653
    Note: AG EFG LS PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w29653.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brent Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Steven J. Davis & Nicholas Parker & David Altig & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom, 2020. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street," Working Papers 2020-189, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    2. Guido Matias Cortes & Eliza C. Forsythe, 2020. "Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic and the CARES Act on Earnings and Inequality," Upjohn Working Papers 20-332, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    3. Desmet, Pieter T.M. & Engel, Christoph, 2021. "People are conditional rule followers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Jeehoon Han & Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2020. "Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 85-118.
    5. Osuke Komazawa & Ni Wayan Suriastini & Ika Yulia Wijayanti & Maliki & Dinar Dana Kharisma, 2021. "Older People and COVID-19 in Indonesia," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 978-602-5460-31-9 edited by Osuke Komazawa & Ni Wayan Suriastini & Ika Yulia Wijayanti & Maliki & Dinar Dana Kharisma, December.
    6. Anqi Chen & Alicia H. Munnell, 2020. "Can Older Workers Work from Home?," Issues in Brief 2020-9, Center for Retirement Research.
    7. Ahearn, Bertie & Singh Ahluwalia, Montek & Ahmed, Masood & Alphandéry, Edmond & Altwaijri, HE Dr Abdulaziz Altwaijri & Amato, Giuliano & Amersi, Mohamed & Arbour, Louise & Aria, Óscar & Aziz, Shaukat , 2020. "The COVID-19 pandemic: a letter to G20 leaders," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104370, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Gary Burtless, 2016. "Labor Force Dynamics in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: Implications for Older Workers," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2016-1, Center for Retirement Research.
    9. Panu Poutvaara & Madhinee Valeyatheepillay & Panu Poutvaara, 2020. "Covid-19 Pandemic: Challenges and a Way Forward," EconPol Policy Reports 30, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Gary V. Engelhardt & Jonathan Gruber, 2004. "Social Security and the Evolution of Elderly Poverty," NBER Working Papers 10466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Herrera, Helios & Konradt, Maximilian & Ordoñez, Guillermo & Trebesch, Christoph, 2020. "Corona politics: The cost of mismanaging pandemics," Kiel Working Papers 2165, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. David Neumark & Ian Burn & Patrick Button, 2019. "Is It Harder for Older Workers to Find Jobs? New and Improved Evidence from a Field Experiment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(2), pages 922-970.
    13. Jens Südekum, 2020. "Die europäische Antwort auf die Corona-Pandemie," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 397-400, June.
    14. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2022. "Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 596-612.
    15. Zachary Parolin, 2020. "Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Poverty and Social Policy Brief 20409, Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University.
    16. Muhammad Fahad Sattar & Sehrish Khanum & Ahsan Nawaz & Muhammad Muzamal Ashfaq & Muhammad Anas Khan & Muhammad Jawad & Waseem Ullah, 2020. "Covid-19 Global, Pandemic impact on World Economy," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 11(1), pages 165-179, September.
    17. Charlotte H. Watts & Patrick Vallance & Christopher J. M. Whitty, 2020. "Coronavirus: global solutions to prevent a pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 578(7795), pages 363-363, February.
    18. W Mark C Weidemaier & Mitu Gulati, 2020. "Necessity and the Covid-19 pandemic," Capital Markets Law Journal, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 277-283.
    19. Markus Eller & Branimir Jovanovic & Thomas Scheiber, 2021. "What do people in CESEE think about public debt?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/21, pages 35-58.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dalal Al‐Taweel & Asmaa Al‐Haqan & Dalia Bajis & Jawaher Al‐Bader & AbdulRahman M. Al‐Taweel & Abrar Al‐Awadhi & Fawzeya Al‐Awadhi, 2020. "Multidisciplinary academic perspectives during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 1295-1301, November.
    2. Belhadi, Amine & Kamble, Sachin & Jabbour, Charbel Jose Chiappetta & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Ndubisi, Nelson Oly & Venkatesh, Mani, 2021. "Manufacturing and service supply chain resilience to the COVID-19 outbreak: Lessons learned from the automobile and airline industries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Jasmine Jaim, 2021. "Exist or exit? Women business‐owners in Bangladesh during COVID‐19," Gender, Work and Organization, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(S1), pages 209-226, January.
    4. Nayga, Jr., Rodolfo M. & Valizadeh, Pourya & Melo, Grace, 2022. "SNAP and well-being of low-income households with children before and during the pandemic," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322184, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Mou Rani Sarker, 2021. "Labor market and unpaid works implications of COVID‐19 for Bangladeshi women," Gender, Work and Organization, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(S2), pages 597-604, July.
    6. Stewart Nixon, 2020. "Global Integration Is More Important than Ever to Contain the Economic and Health Fallout and Exit the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis," World Bank Publications - Reports 34394, The World Bank Group.
    7. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2021. "Regional growth and disparities in a post‐COVID Europe: A new normality scenario," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 710-727, September.
    8. Nagurney, Anna, 2021. "Supply chain game theory network modeling under labor constraints: Applications to the Covid-19 pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 880-891.
    9. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke & Gernot J Müller, 2023. "The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1318-1347.
    10. Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2022. "Hitting where it hurts most: COVID-19 and low-income urban college students," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Koen Deconinck & Ellie Avery & Lee Ann Jackson, 2020. "Food Supply Chains and Covid‐19: Impacts and Policy Lessons," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 34-39, December.
    12. Marianne P. Bitler & Hilary W. Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, 2020. "The Social Safety Net in the Wake of COVID-19," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 119-158.
    13. Bruno Boidin, 2020. "Enfin la soutenabilité forte ? Économie hétérodoxe et monde post-Covid 19," Post-Print hal-04431248, HAL.
    14. Christoph Engel & Luigi Mittone & Azzurra Morreale, 2024. "Outcomes or participation? Experimentally testing competing sources of legitimacy for taxation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 563-583, April.
    15. Todd Morris & Benoit Dostie, 2023. "Graying and staying on the job: The welfare implications of employment protection for older workers," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 15, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    16. Marc Peter Radke & Manuel Rupprecht, 2021. "Household Wealth: Low-Yielding and Poorly Structured?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-40, March.
    17. Henry S. Farber & Dan Silverman & Till von Wachter, 2016. "Determinants of Callbacks to Job Applications: An Audit Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 314-318, May.
    18. Button, Patrick & Walker, Brigham, 2020. "Employment discrimination against Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Evidence from a field experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Malavasi, Chiara & Ye, Han, 2024. "Live Longer and Healthier: Impact of Pension Income for Low-Income Retirees," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302374, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Truc Thi Mai Bui & Patrick Button & Elyce G. Picciotti, 2020. "Early Evidence on the Impact of COVID-19 and the Recession on Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 27448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29653. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.