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Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street

Author

Listed:
  • Brent Meyer

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Emil Mihaylov

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Steven J. Davis

    (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; Hoover Institution; NBER)

  • Nicholas Parker

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • David Altig

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Jose Maria Barrero

    (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México - Business School)

  • Nicholas Bloom

    (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; CEPR; NBER)

Abstract

We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year look- ahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this sense, decision makers in nonfinancial businesses share some of the optimism that seems manifest in equity markets. Third, and despite the positive shift in tail risks, overall uncertainty continues to substantially dampen capital spending plans, pointing to a source of weak growth in potential GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Steven J. Davis & Nicholas Parker & David Altig & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom, 2020. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street," Working Papers 2020-189, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-189
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    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_2020189.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & Stephen J. Davis & Lucia Foster & Brian Lucking & Scott Ohlmacher & Itay Saporta Eksten, 2020. "Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-181, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    2. Apedo Amah,Marie Christine & Avdiu,Besart & Cirera,Xavier & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Davies,Elwyn Adriaan Robin & Grover,Arti Goswami & Iacovone,Leonardo & Kilinc,Umut & Medvedev,Denis & Maduko,Fr, 2020. "Unmasking the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses : Firm Level Evidence from Across the World," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9434, The World Bank.
    3. Buffington, Catherine & Foster, Lucia & Jarmin, Ron & Ohlmacher, Scott & Ohlmacher, Scott, 2017. "The management and organizational practices survey (MOPS): An overview1," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, IOS Press, issue 1, pages 1-26.
    4. Catherine Buffington & Lucia Foster & Ron Jarmin & Scott Ohlmacher, 2016. "The Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS): An Overview," Working Papers 16-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Bloom, Nick & Bunn, Philip & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Greg & Young, Garry, 2017. "Tracking the views of British businesses: evidence form the Decision Maker Panel," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 57(2), pages 110-120.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard B. Freeman, 2022. "Planning for the “Expected Unexpected”: Work and Retirement in the U.S. After the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock," NBER Working Papers 29653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mou Rani Sarker, 2021. "Labor market and unpaid works implications of COVID‐19 for Bangladeshi women," Gender, Work and Organization, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(S2), pages 597-604, July.
    3. Jasmine Jaim, 2021. "Exist or exit? Women business‐owners in Bangladesh during COVID‐19," Gender, Work and Organization, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(S1), pages 209-226, January.
    4. Reis, G.G. & Heidemann, M.S. & Goes, H.A.A. & Molento, C.F.M., 2021. "Can radical innovation mitigate environmental and animal welfare misconduct in global value chains? The case of cell-based tuna," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Dalal Al‐Taweel & Asmaa Al‐Haqan & Dalia Bajis & Jawaher Al‐Bader & AbdulRahman M. Al‐Taweel & Abrar Al‐Awadhi & Fawzeya Al‐Awadhi, 2020. "Multidisciplinary academic perspectives during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 1295-1301, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business expectations; uncertainty; subjective forecast distributions; surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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