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Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with Focus on Personalized Medicine

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  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization using estimates of illness probabilities in clinical choice between surveillance and aggressive treatment. Beyond its specifics, the paper sends a broad message. Statisticians and computer scientists have addressed conditional prediction for decision making in indirect ways, the former applying classical statistical theory and the latter measuring prediction accuracy in test samples. Neither approach is satisfactory. Statistical decision theory provides a coherent, generally applicable methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with Focus on Personalized Medicine," NBER Working Papers 29358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29358
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bradley Efron, 2020. "Prediction, Estimation, and Attribution," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(530), pages 636-655, April.
    2. Toru Kitagawa & Aleksey Tetenov, 2018. "Who Should Be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 591-616, March.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2020. "Judicial and Clinical Decision-Making under Uncertainty," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 176(1), pages 33-43.
    4. Susan Athey & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Policy Learning With Observational Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 133-161, January.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Treatment Choice With Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 296-304, March.
    6. Eric Mbakop & Max Tabord‐Meehan, 2021. "Model Selection for Treatment Choice: Penalized Welfare Maximization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 825-848, March.
    7. Stoye, Jörg, 2009. "Minimax regret treatment choice with finite samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 70-81, July.
    8. Keisuke Hirano & Jack R. Porter, 2009. "Asymptotics for Statistical Treatment Rules," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1683-1701, September.
    9. Charles F. Manski, 2009. "The 2009 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Diversified Treatment Under Ambiguity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1013-1041, November.
    10. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2018. "How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 232-244, May.
    11. Manski, Charles F., 1975. "Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-228, August.
    12. Stoye, Jörg, 2012. "Minimax regret treatment choice with covariates or with limited validity of experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 138-156.
    13. Tetenov, Aleksey, 2012. "Statistical treatment choice based on asymmetric minimax regret criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 157-165.
    14. Bradley Efron, 2020. "Prediction, Estimation, and Attribution," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(S1), pages 28-59, December.
    15. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1221-1246, July.
    16. Manski, Charles F., 2007. "Minimax-regret treatment choice with missing outcome data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 105-115, July.
    17. Manski, Charles F., 1985. "Semiparametric analysis of discrete response : Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-333, March.
    18. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2000. "Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 997-1012, July.
    19. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2019. "Trial Size for Near-Optimal Choice Between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment: Reconsidering MSLT-II," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 305-311, March.
    20. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2827-2853, November.
    21. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Credible ecological inference for medical decisions with personalized risk assessment," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 541-569, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    2. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    3. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    4. Federico Crippa, 2024. "Regret Analysis in Threshold Policy Design," Papers 2404.11767, arXiv.org.
    5. Hannes Ullrich & Michael Allan Ribers, 2023. "Machine predictions and human decisions with variation in payoffs and skill: the case of antibiotic prescribing," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0027, Berlin School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

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