IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2788.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating The Age-Productivity Profile Using Lifetime Earnings

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Abstract

Understanding how productivity varies with age is important for a variety of reasons. A decline in productivity with age implies that aging societies must increasingly depend on the labor supply of the young and middle age. It also means that policies designed to keep the elderly in the work force, while potentially good for the elderly, may decrease overall productivity. A third implication is that, absent government intervention, employers may not be willing to hire the elderly for the same compensation as younger workers. Labor economists are particularly interested in the relationship of productivity and age because it can help test alternative theories of the labor market. This paper assumes risk neutral employers and estimates the age-productivity relationship using the first order condition that the present expected value of total compensation equals the present expected value of productivity; workers hired at different ages have different present expected values of total compensation, and, correspondingly, different present expected values of productivity. Hence, if one parameterizes the age-productivity relationship, the parameters of this relationship can be identified from information on how total present expected compensation varies with age. The data in the study are earnings histories for over three hundred thousand employees of a Fortune 1000 corporation covering the period 1969-1983. While the results may be subject to several biases and should be viewed cautiously, they are fairly striking. For each of the five sex-occupation groups, productivity falls with age. For young workers, compensation (earnings plus pension accrual) is below productivity and for older workers compensation exceeds productivity. For several worker groups the discrepancy between compensation and productivity is very substantial. In addition to confirming some features of contract theory, the results lend support to the bonding models of Becker and Stigler and Lazear which suggest that firms use the age-earnings profile as an incentive device.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1988. "Estimating The Age-Productivity Profile Using Lifetime Earnings," NBER Working Papers 2788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2788
    Note: AG LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2788.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wise, David A., 1985. "Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226902937.
    2. James L. Medoff & Katharine G. Abraham, 1980. "Experience, Performance, and Earnings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 95(4), pages 703-736.
    3. Joseph G. Altonji & Robert A. Shakotko, 1987. "Do Wages Rise with Job Seniority?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(3), pages 437-459.
    4. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & David A. Wise, 1985. "Labor Compensation and the Structure of Private Pension Plans: Evidence for Contractual versus Spot Labor Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, pages 55-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Abraham, Katharine G & Farber, Henry S, 1987. "Job Duration, Seniority, and Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 278-297, June.
    6. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    7. Lazear, Edward P, 1981. "Agency, Earnings Profiles, Productivity, and Hours Restrictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 606-620, September.
    8. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Daniel E. Smith, 1983. "The Structure of Private Pension Plans," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the American Economy, pages 163-289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Joseph Altonji & R. Shakotko, 1985. "Do Wages Rise with Job Seniority?," Working Papers 567, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    10. David A. Wise, 1985. "Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise85-1.
    11. repec:fth:prinin:187 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sidonia von Ledebur, 2009. "Patent Productivity of German Professors over the Life Cycle," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2009-03, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    2. Thomas Strobel, 2014. "Directed technological change, skill complementarities and sectoral productivity growth: evidence from industrialized countries during the new economy," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 255-275, December.
    3. Stephan Brunow & Georg Hirte, 2009. "The age pattern of human capital and regional productivity: A spatial econometric study on german regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 799-823, November.
    4. X. Penny Li & Marion Joppe & Scott M. Meis, 2017. "Human resource management impacts on labour productivity in tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1028-1041, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Jagadeesh Gokhale, 1992. "Estimating a Firm's Age-Productivity Profile Using the Present Value of Workers' Earnings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1215-1242.
    2. Richard Disney & Carl Emmerson, 2002. "Choice of pension scheme and job mobility in Britain," IFS Working Papers W02/09, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Alberto Bayo-Moriones & Jose E. Galdon-Sanchez & Maia Güell, 2010. "Is seniority-based pay used as a motivational device? Evidence from plant-level data," Research in Labor Economics, in: Jobs, Training, and Worker Well-being, pages 155-187, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Björklund, Anders & Åkerman, Jeanette, 1989. "Piece-Rates, On-the-Job Training and the Wage-Tenure Profile," Working Paper Series 246, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    5. Flabbi, Luca & Ichino, Andrea, 2001. "Productivity, seniority and wages: new evidence from personnel data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 359-387, June.
    6. Vincenzo SPIEZIA, 2002. "The greying population: A wasted human capital or just a social liability?," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 141(1-2), pages 71-113, March.
    7. David Neumark & Wendy A. Stock, 1999. "Age Discrimination Laws and Labor Market Efficiency," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 1081-1110, October.
    8. Dohmen, Thomas J., 2004. "Performance, seniority, and wages: formal salary systems and individual earnings profiles," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 741-763, December.
    9. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2373-2437 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Paul Hek & Daniel Vuuren, 2011. "Are older workers overpaid? A literature review," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(4), pages 436-460, August.
    11. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1988. "An Analysis Of Pension Benefit Formulas, Pension Wealth And Incentives From Pensions," NBER Working Papers 2535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Pfeifer, Christian, 2009. "An Intra-Firm Perspective on Wage Profiles and Employment of Older Workers with Special Reference to Human Capital and Deferred Compensation," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-413, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    13. Alan L. Gustman & F. Thomas Juster, 1995. "Income and Wealth of Older American Households: Modeling Issues for Public Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jacob Mincer, 1988. "Job Training, Wage Growth, and Labor Turnover," NBER Working Papers 2690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Steven G. Allen & Robert L. Clark, 1987. "Pensions and Firm Performance," NBER Working Papers 2266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alberto Bayo-Moriones, 2001. "Seniority-based pay: is it used as a motivation device?," Working Papers 0103, Departament Empresa, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, revised May 2001.
    17. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 1993. "Pension portability and labor mobility : Evidence from the survey of income and program participation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 299-323, March.
    18. Montgomery, Edward & Shaw, Kathryn, 1997. "Pensions and Wage Premia," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 510-522, July.
    19. Christian Pfeifer, 2009. "Adjustment of Deferred Compensation Schemes, Fairness Concerns, and Hiring of Older Workers," Working Paper Series in Economics 151, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    20. William J. Moore & Robert J. Newman & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 2002. "The Experience-Earnings Profile: Productivity-Augmenting or Purely Contractual?," Departmental Working Papers 2002-13, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    21. Parent, Daniel, 1999. "Wages and Mobility: The Impact of Employer-Provided Training," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 298-317, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.