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Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994

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  • Mr. Lars E. O. Svensson

Abstract

The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994," IMF Working Papers 1994/114, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1994/114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shea, Gary S., 1984. "Pitfalls in Smoothing Interest Rate Term Structure Data: Equilibrium Models and Spline Approximations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 253-269, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; risk premium; monetary policy; spot rate; maturity date; inflation expectation; short interest; inflation rate; marginal lending rate; Inflation; Futures; Bonds; Yield curve; Return on investment; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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