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Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries

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  • Hilary W. Hoynes
  • Jesse Rothstein

Abstract

We discuss the potential role of Universal Basic Incomes (UBIs) in advanced countries. A feature of advanced economies that distinguishes them from developing countries is the existence of well developed, if often incomplete, safety nets. We develop a framework for describing transfer programs, flexible enough to encompass most existing programs as well as UBIs, and use this framework to compare various UBIs to the existing constellation of programs in the United States. A UBI would direct much larger shares of transfers to childless, non-elderly, non-disabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households. A UBI large enough to increase transfers to low-income families would be enormously expensive. We review the labor supply literature for evidence on the likely impacts of a UBI. We argue that the ongoing UBI pilot studies will do little to resolve the major outstanding questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilary W. Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries," NBER Working Papers 25538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25538
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    2. Eduardo Ignacio Polo-Muro, 2021. "The effect of labor market shocks on mental health outcomes: evidence from the Spanish Great Recession," Working Papers 21.08, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    3. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2023. "Automation, automatic capital returns, and the functional income distribution," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 113-135, January.
    4. Juan Carlos Conesa & Bo Li & Qian Li, 2020. "Universal Basic Income and Progressive Consumption Taxes," Department of Economics Working Papers 20-01, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    5. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2024. "Government size and automation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 780-807, June.
    6. Rozane Bezerra de Siqueira & Jose Ricardo Bezerra Nogueira, 2021. "A Universal Basic Income For Brazil: Fiscal and Distributional Effects of Alternative Schemes," Papers 2103.06020, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    7. Ben Spies-Butcher & Ben Phillips & Troy Henderson, 2020. "Between universalism and targeting: Exploring policy pathways for an Australian Basic Income," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 31(4), pages 502-523, December.
    8. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Li, Bo & Li, Qian, 2023. "A quantitative evaluation of universal basic income," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    9. Diego Daruich & Raquel Fernández, 2024. "Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 38-88, January.
    10. Nishant Yonzan & Laxman Timilsina & Inas Rashad Kelly, 2020. "Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," NBER Working Papers 26712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chris Riddell & W. Craig Riddell, 2024. "Welfare versus Work under a Negative Income Tax: Evidence from the Gary, Seattle, Denver, and Manitoba Income Maintenance Experiments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 427-467.
    12. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2022. "New digital technologies and heterogeneous wage and employment dynamics in the United States: Evidence from individual-level data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    13. Brewer, Mike & Joyce, Robert & Waters, Tom & Woods, Joseph, 2020. "A method for decomposing the impact of reforms on the long-run income distribution, with an application to universal credit," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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