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Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend

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  • Nishant Yonzan
  • Laxman Timilsina
  • Inas Rashad Kelly

Abstract

Starting in 1982, the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend allows each full-time resident in Alaska, including infants born in the qualifying year, to receive a sizable dividend. This dividend, which represents a form of a Universal Basic Income on a small scale, could alter incentives surrounding fertility. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences models to account for confounding factors and unobserved heterogeneity, we model the effect of income on fertility by exploiting this income shock around 1982 using Natality files from Vital Statistics and abortion data from the Centers for Disease Control, merged with data from the Census on various state characteristics. Primary results suggest that the dividend increased fertility and reduced the spacing between births, particularly for females in the 20-44 year age group. Our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing income should consider fertility consequences and their implications for economic growth.

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  • Nishant Yonzan & Laxman Timilsina & Inas Rashad Kelly, 2020. "Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," NBER Working Papers 26712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26712
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Bokun, 2024. "Cash transfers and fertility: Evidence from Poland’s Family 500+ Policy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(28), pages 855-910.
    2. Singh, Parvati & Gemmill, Alison & Bruckner, Tim-Allen, 2023. "Casino-based cash transfers and fertility among the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in North Carolina: A time-series analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Jennifer Glass & Carolyn E. Waldrep, 2023. "Child Allowances and Work-Family Reconciliation Policies: What Best Reduces Child Poverty and Gender Inequality While Enabling Desired Fertility?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(5), pages 1-57, October.
    4. Day, Creina, 2022. "Increasing inequality and voting for basic income: Could gender inequality worsen?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 476-487.
    5. Rannveig Kaldager Hart & Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Wookun Kim, 2023. "Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 10690, CESifo.

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    JEL classification:

    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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