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No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs

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  • Ioana Marinescu

Abstract

The universal basic income has become a widely discussed measure in policy circles around the world. In this review, we cover the evidence relevant to its potential impact in the US, and in developed countries more generally. Many studies find no statistically significant effect of an unconditional cash transfer on the probability of working. In the studies that do find an effect on labor supply, the effect is small: a 10% income increase induced by an unconditional cash transfer decreases labor supply by about 1%. The evidence shows that an unconditional cash transfer can improve health and educational outcomes, and decrease criminality and drug & alcohol use, especially among the most disadvantaged youths.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioana Marinescu, 2018. "No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs," NBER Working Papers 24337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24337
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Giupponi, 2019. "When income effects are large: labor supply responses and the value of welfare transfers," CEP Discussion Papers dp1651, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Rafael Novella & Laura Ripani & Claudia Vazquez, 2021. "Conditional cash transfers, female bargaining power and parental labour supply," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 422-436, March.
    3. Óscar Afonso & Elena Sochirca & Pedro Cunha Neves, 2022. "Robots and Humans: The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in an Endogenous Growth Model," CEF.UP Working Papers 2201, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Tim Köhler & Haroon Bhorat, 2021. "Can cash transfers aid labour market recovery? Evidence from South Africa’s special COVID-19 grant," Working Papers 202108, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    5. Rauh, Christopher & Rodrigues dos Santos, Marcelo, 2022. "How do transfers and universal basic income impact the labor market and inequality?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gubello, Michele, 2024. "Social trust and the support for universal basic income," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Yihong Bai & Michel Grignon, 2024. "Why do drinkers earn more? Job characteristics as a possible link," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 1133-1152, June.
    8. Munoz de Bustillo Llorente Rafael & FERNANDEZ MACIAS Enrique & GONZALEZ VAZQUEZ Ignacio, 2020. "Universality in Social Protection: An Inquiry about its Meaning and Measurement," JRC Research Reports JRC122953, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Lehner, Lukas & Kasy, Maximilian, 2022. "Employing the unemployed of Marienthal: Evaluation of a guaranteed job program," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-29, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    10. Atheendar S Venkataramani & Rourke O’Brien & Gregory L Whitehorn & Alexander C Tsai, 2020. "Economic influences on population health in the United States: Toward policymaking driven by data and evidence," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(9), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Sarah Baird & David McKenzie & Berk Özler, 2018. "The effects of cash transfers on adult labor market outcomes," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Sauval, Maria & Duncan, Greg J. & Gennetian, Lisa A. & Magnuson, Katherine A. & Fox, Nathan A. & Noble, Kimberly G. & Yoshikawa, Hirokazu, 2024. "Unconditional cash transfers and maternal employment: Evidence from the Baby’s First Years study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Wilson, Naomi & McDaid, Shari, 2021. "The mental health effects of a Universal Basic Income: A synthesis of the evidence from previous pilots," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    14. Ravallion, Martin, 2019. "Guaranteed employment or guaranteed income?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 209-221.
    15. René Böheim & Michael Topf, 2020. "Unearned income and labor supply: Evidence from survivor pensions in Austria," Economics working papers 2020-27, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    16. Nishant Yonzan & Laxman Timilsina & Inas Rashad Kelly, 2020. "Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," NBER Working Papers 26712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Damon Jones & Ioana Marinescu, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-340, May.
    18. Chris Riddell & W. Craig Riddell, 2024. "Welfare versus Work under a Negative Income Tax: Evidence from the Gary, Seattle, Denver, and Manitoba Income Maintenance Experiments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 427-467.
    19. Eva Jacob, 2023. "Revenu de Base Inconditionnel : de la théorie à la pratique," Working Papers of BETA 2023-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    20. Giupponi, Giulia, 2019. "When income effects are large: labor supply responses and the value of welfare transfers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103424, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Yonzan, Nishant & Timilsina, Laxman & Kelly, Inas Rashad, 2024. "Economic incentives surrounding fertility: Evidence from Alaska’s permanent fund dividend," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    22. Colin D. Wooldridge & Andrew F. Johnson & Katherine J. Roberto, 2024. "Something for Everyone? Addressing Conservative Opposition to Universal Basic Income Programmes," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 24(1), pages 68-76, January.
    23. Coelho, José, 2020. "Universal basic income and skill-biased technological change," MPRA Paper 99195, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Mar 2020.
    24. Oscar Afonso & Rosa Forte, 2023. "How powerful are fiscal and monetary policies in a directed technical change model with humans and robots?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3008-3032, July.
    25. Riedl Drew, 2020. "Financing Universal Basic Income: Eliminating Poverty and Bolstering the Middle Class While Addressing Inequality, Economic Rents, and Climate Change," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-34, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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