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Order Backlogs and Production Smoothing

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  • Kenneth D. West

Abstract

Empirical examination of some aggregate manufacturing data suggests that order backlogs may help explain two puzzling facts: (1) the variability of production appears to be greater than that of demand, and (2) inventories appear to be drawn down when demand is low, built up when demand is high.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth D. West, 1987. "Order Backlogs and Production Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
    2. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
    3. Alan S. Blinder, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 431-453.
    4. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-679, September.
    5. West, Kenneth D., 1983. "A note on the econometric use of constant dollar inventory series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 337-341.
    6. Michael C. Lovell, 1959. "Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 86, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Maccini, Louis J & Rossana, Robert J, 1984. "Joint Production, Quasi-Fixed Factors of Production, and Investement in Finished Goods Inventories," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 218-236, May.
    8. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
    9. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
    10. Maccini, Louis J., 1973. "On optimal delivery lags," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 107-125, April.
    11. Blinder, Alan S, 1982. "Inventories and Sticky Prices: More on the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 334-348, June.
    12. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July.
    13. Moses Abramovitz, 1950. "Inventories and Business Cycles, with Special Reference to Manufacturers' Inventories," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra50-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. José Miguel Melo, 2011. "Estratégia Militar e Gestão de Activos: Uma Visão Heurística," Working Papers de Gestão (Management Working Papers) 01, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    2. Durlauf, Steven N. & Maccini, Louis J., 1995. "Measuring noise in inventory models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-89, August.
    3. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    4. Hélène Eyssartier & Claire Waysand, 1997. "Mieux prévoir les variations de stocks avec les enquêtes de conjoncture," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 307(1), pages 77-91.
    5. West, Kenneth D., 1990. "Evidence from seven countries on whether inventories smooth aggregate output," Engineering Costs and Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-3), pages 85-90, May.
    6. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April.
    7. Bivin, David G., 2006. "Industry evidence of enhanced production stability since 1984," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 438-448, September.

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