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Using Non-Linear Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test

Author

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  • Alexander M. Gelber
  • Damon Jones
  • Daniel W. Sacks
  • Jae Song

Abstract

We develop a method for estimating the effect of a kinked or notched budget set on workers’ employment decisions, and we use it to estimate the impact of the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Annual Earnings Test (AET). The AET reduces OASI claimants’ current OASI benefits in proportion to their earnings in excess of an exempt amount. Using a Regression Kink Design and Social Security Administration data, we document that the discontinuous change in the benefit reduction rate at the exempt amount causes a corresponding change in the slope of the employment rate. We develop conditions in a general setting under which we can use such patterns to estimate the elasticity of the employment rate with respect to the effective average net-of-tax rate. Our resulting point estimate for the AET indicates an elasticity of at least 0.49, suggesting that the AET reduces employment by more than one percentage point in the group we study.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander M. Gelber & Damon Jones & Daniel W. Sacks & Jae Song, 2017. "Using Non-Linear Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test," NBER Working Papers 23362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23362
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    4. Li, Han & Li, Jiangyi & Lu, Yi & Xie, Huihua, 2020. "Housing wealth and labor supply: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Philippe Aghion & Maxime Gravoueille & Matthieu Lequien & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2017. "Tax Simplicity or Simplicity of Evasion? Evidence from Self-Employment Taxes in France," NBER Working Papers 24049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fitzpatrick, Maria D., 2019. "Pension reform and return-to-work policies," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 500-514, October.
    7. Itay Saporta-Eksten & Ity Shurtz & Sarit Weisburd, 2021. "Social Security, Labor Supply, and Health of Older Workers: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Large Reform [Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 2168-2208.
    8. Benjamin Schoefer, 2018. "Marginal Jobs and Job Surplus: Evidence from Separations and Unemployment Insurance," 2018 Meeting Papers 1309, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Mark Borgschulte & Heepyung Cho, 2020. "Minimum Wages and Retirement," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 73(1), pages 153-177, January.
    10. Kavan Kucko & Kevin Rinz & Benjamin Solow, 2017. "Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch," CARRA Working Papers 2017-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. He, Daixin & Peng, Langchuan & Wang, Xiaxin, 2021. "Understanding the elasticity of taxable income: A tale of two approaches," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    12. Escobar, Sebastian & Ohlsson, Henry & Selin, Håkan, 2019. "Taxes, frictions and asset shifting: when Swedes disinherited themselves," Working Paper Series 2019:6, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    13. Courtney Coile, 2018. "Working Longer in the U.S.: Trends and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 24576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Courtney C. Coile, 2018. "Working Longer in the United States: Trends and Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Working Longer, pages 299-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lundberg, Jacob & Norell, John, 2018. "Taxes, benefits and labour force participation: A survey of the quasi-experimental literature," Ratio Working Papers 313, The Ratio Institute.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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