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Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies

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  • Kimie Harada
  • Takatoshi Ito
  • Shuhei Takahashi

Abstract

This paper examines the movements of the Distance to Default (DD), a market-based measure of corporate default risk, of eight failed Japanese banks in order to evaluate the predictive power of the DD measure for bank failures. The DD became smaller in anticipation of failure in many cases. The DD spread, defined as the DD of a failed bank minus the DD of sound banks, was also a useful indicator for deterioration of a failed bank's health. For some banks, neither the DD nor the DD spread predicted the failures. However, those results were partly due to lack of transparency in financial statements and disclosed information.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito & Shuhei Takahashi, 2010. "Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 16182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16182
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    1. Turalay Kenc & Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu, 2021. "Bank default indicators with volatility clustering," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 127-151, March.
    2. Chen, Peimin & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 211-226.
    3. Milne, Alistair, 2014. "Distance to default and the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 26-36.
    4. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    5. Flannery, Mark J. & Giacomini, Emanuela, 2015. "Maintaining adequate bank capital: An empirical analysis of the supervision of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 236-249.
    6. Carlson Mark A & King Thomas & Lewis Kurt, 2011. "Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, June.
    7. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2014. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Bank Risk?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 95-136, March.
    8. Martín Saldias, 2012. "Systemic risk analysis and option-based theory and information," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Yoshio Nozawa, 2014. "What Drives the Cross-Section of Credit Spreads?: A Variance Decomposition Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Ignacio Tirado, 2017. "Banking Crises and the Japanese Legal Framework," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    11. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2015. "Contingent Liabilities from Banks: How to Track Them?," IMF Working Papers 2015/255, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "Forward looking banking stress in EMU countries," Working Papers 14-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    13. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Sovereign-bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 137-164.
    14. Turalay Kenc & Emrah Ismail Cevik, 2021. "Estimating volatility clustering and variance risk premium effects on bank default indicators," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1373-1392, November.
    15. Henry I. Penikas & Mikhail A. Surkov, 2018. "History of the World Largest Financial Losses in 1972-2018," DEM Working Papers Series 166, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    16. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    17. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“The robustness of the sovereign-bank interconnection: Evidence from contingent claims analysis”," IREA Working Papers 201804, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    18. Martín Saldias, 2012. "Systemic Risk Analysis using Forward-Looking Distance-to-Default Series," Working Papers w201216, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    20. Chia-Chien Chang & Yung -Jen Chung, 2016. "Can Basel Iii Liquidity Risk Measures Explain Taiwan Bank Failures," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205450, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    21. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Singh, Manish K. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2019. "The sovereign-bank nexus in peripheral euro area: Further evidence from contingent claims analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-26.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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