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Japan premium and stock prices: two mirrors of Japanese banking crises

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  • Takatoshi Ito

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Japan)

  • Kimie Harada

    (Graduate School of International Accounting, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract

This paper investigates how financial weakness among Japanese banks in the second half of the 1990s was reflected in pricing in the financial markets. Two indicators, the Japan premium (JP) and the stock price spread (SP)-deviation between the bank stock index (BINDEX) and stock price index excluding banks (NINDEX)-were examined. The structural change occurring in the relationship between BINDEX and NINDEX is much earlier than the crisis of November 1997. The Granger causality tests reveal that concerns on profitability and solvency reflected in stock prices affect foreign banks' worry over dollar liquidity positions of the Japanese banks. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2005. "Japan premium and stock prices: two mirrors of Japanese banking crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 195-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:10:y:2005:i:3:p:195-211
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.259
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    Cited by:

    1. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Ogawa, Toshiaki, 2020. "The Impacts of Strengthening Regulatory Surveillance on Bank Behavior: A Dynamic Analysis from Incomplete to Complete Enforcement of Capital Regulation in Microprudential Policy," MPRA Paper 99938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hideaki Miyajima & Yishay Yafeh, 2003. "Japan's Banking Crisis: Who has the Most to Lose?," Discussion papers 03010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Hyoung‐Kyu Chey, 2007. "Do markets enhance convergence on international standards? The case of financial regulation," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 295-311, December.
    4. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil K, 2010. "Will the U.S. bank recapitalization succeed? Eight lessons from Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 398-417, September.
    5. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 131-1997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Woon Gyu Choi & David Cook, 2006. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 309-335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Japan: Why has the Bank of Japan not Adopted Inflation Targeting?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2014. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model : Do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast?," TERG Discussion Papers 312, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    9. Naohiko Baba & Yasuaki Amatatsu, 2008. "Price discovery from cross-currency and FX swaps: a structural analysis," BIS Working Papers 264, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2004. "Bank Fragility in Japan, 1995-2003," CESifo Working Paper Series 1137, CESifo.
    11. Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2003. "Market Evaluations of Banking Fragility in Japan: Japan Premium, Stock Prices, and Credit Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 9589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2014. "Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 546-572, March.
    13. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    14. Arikawa Yasuhiro & Miyajima Hideaki, 2005. "Relationship Banking in post Bubble Japan: Co-existence of soft-and hard budget constraint," Discussion papers 05015, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. NAKASHIMA, KIYOTAKA & Ogawa, Toshiaki, 2021. "The Impacts of Strengthening Regulatory Surveillance on Bank Behavior: A Dynamic Analysis from Incomplete to Complete Enforcement of Capital Regulation in Microprudential Policy," MPRA Paper 109147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Imai, Masami, 2006. "Market discipline and deposit insurance reform in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3433-3452, December.
    17. Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito & Shuhei Takahashi, 2010. "Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 16182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Yasuaki Amatatsu & Naohiko Baba, 2007. "Price Discovery from Cross-Currency and FX Swaps: A Structural Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    19. repec:fip:fedfpr:00004 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi, 2011. "Did mergers help Japanese mega-banks avoid failure? Analysis of the distance to default of banks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, March.
    21. Takatoshi Ito, 2009. "Fire, flood, and lifeboats: policy responses to the global crisis of 2007-09," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct, pages 207-249.
    22. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2013. "Is the Distance to Default a good measure in predicting bank failures? A case study of Japanese major banks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 70-82.
    23. Montgomery, Heather & Takahashi, Yuki, 2014. "The economic consequences of the TARP: The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in the U.S," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 49-64.
    24. Suresh Sundaresan, 2001. "Supervisor and Market Analysts: What Should Research be Seeking?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 275-280, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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