IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/7997.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Japan Premium and Stock Prices: Two Mirrors of Japanese Banking Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Takatoshi Ito
  • Kimie Harada

Abstract

This paper investigates how financial troubles among Japanese banks in the second half of the 1990s were viewed by the market. Two indicators, the Japan premium and the stock price index of the banking sector in Tokyo, were examined. Econometric tests were employed to see whether different kinds of investors saw the banking crisis differently, and what kind of news had most impacts on market pricing of Japanese banks. Our findings are as follows. (1) Factors that pushed up the Japan Premium most were the Daiwa Bank incidence in the fall of 1995, failures of large financial institutions in November 1997, and uncertainties in the resolution of banking problem in fall 1998. (2) The bank stock index declined (in relative to the general stock index) most in bank failures, in particular by the Yamaichi Securities failure in November 1997. (3) Individual failures of financial institutions may or may not have impact on other banks' stock prices. (4) The bank stock index and the general stock index historically had co-movements, but the structural changes occurred in the co-movement relationship at around the summer of 1995. (5) News that affected Japan premium and bank stocks are sometimes different. The bank stock price index Granger-causes the Japan premium, but the reverse does not hold. The result is consistent with the view that Japan premium reflects both domestic structural problems and banks' liquidity problem in the euro dollar market, while the bank stock prices reflect the former only.

Suggested Citation

  • Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2000. "Japan Premium and Stock Prices: Two Mirrors of Japanese Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 7997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7997
    Note: AP CF IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7997.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2001. "Determinants of the Japan premium: actions speak louder than words," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 283-305, April.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    7. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    8. Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2003. "Market Evaluations of Banking Fragility in Japan: Japan Premium, Stock Prices, and Credit Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 9589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:ime:imemes:v:19:y:2001:i:s1:p:239-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 222-259, April.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Quintos, Carmela E., 1998. "Stability tests in error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-315, February.
    15. Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Financial Crises As the Failure of Arbitrage: Implications for Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 239-270, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Ogawa, Toshiaki, 2020. "The Impacts of Strengthening Regulatory Surveillance on Bank Behavior: A Dynamic Analysis from Incomplete to Complete Enforcement of Capital Regulation in Microprudential Policy," MPRA Paper 99938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hideaki Miyajima & Yishay Yafeh, 2003. "Japan's Banking Crisis: Who has the Most to Lose?," Discussion papers 03010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Hyoung‐Kyu Chey, 2007. "Do markets enhance convergence on international standards? The case of financial regulation," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 295-311, December.
    4. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil K, 2010. "Will the U.S. bank recapitalization succeed? Eight lessons from Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 398-417, September.
    5. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 131-1997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Woon Gyu Choi & David Cook, 2006. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 309-335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Japan: Why has the Bank of Japan not Adopted Inflation Targeting?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2014. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model : Do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast?," TERG Discussion Papers 312, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    9. Naohiko Baba & Yasuaki Amatatsu, 2008. "Price discovery from cross-currency and FX swaps: a structural analysis," BIS Working Papers 264, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2004. "Bank Fragility in Japan, 1995-2003," CESifo Working Paper Series 1137, CESifo.
    11. Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2003. "Market Evaluations of Banking Fragility in Japan: Japan Premium, Stock Prices, and Credit Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 9589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2014. "Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 546-572, March.
    13. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    14. Arikawa Yasuhiro & Miyajima Hideaki, 2005. "Relationship Banking in post Bubble Japan: Co-existence of soft-and hard budget constraint," Discussion papers 05015, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. NAKASHIMA, KIYOTAKA & Ogawa, Toshiaki, 2021. "The Impacts of Strengthening Regulatory Surveillance on Bank Behavior: A Dynamic Analysis from Incomplete to Complete Enforcement of Capital Regulation in Microprudential Policy," MPRA Paper 109147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Imai, Masami, 2006. "Market discipline and deposit insurance reform in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3433-3452, December.
    17. Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito & Shuhei Takahashi, 2010. "Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 16182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Yasuaki Amatatsu & Naohiko Baba, 2007. "Price Discovery from Cross-Currency and FX Swaps: A Structural Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    19. repec:fip:fedfpr:00004 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi, 2011. "Did mergers help Japanese mega-banks avoid failure? Analysis of the distance to default of banks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, March.
    21. Takatoshi Ito, 2009. "Fire, flood, and lifeboats: policy responses to the global crisis of 2007-09," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct, pages 207-249.
    22. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2013. "Is the Distance to Default a good measure in predicting bank failures? A case study of Japanese major banks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 70-82.
    23. Montgomery, Heather & Takahashi, Yuki, 2014. "The economic consequences of the TARP: The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in the U.S," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 49-64.
    24. Suresh Sundaresan, 2001. "Supervisor and Market Analysts: What Should Research be Seeking?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 275-280, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September.
    2. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    3. Eiji Kurozumi & Yoichi Arai, 2007. "Efficient estimation and inference in cointegrating regressions with structural change," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 545-575, July.
    4. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    5. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2018. "Confidence Sets for the Break Date in Cointegrating Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(3), pages 514-535, June.
    6. Kuo, Biing-Shen, 1998. "Test for partial parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 337-368, June.
    7. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    8. Beyer, Andreas & Dewald, William G. & Haug, Alfred A., 2009. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank.
    9. Esteve, Vicente & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2012. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for Spain? Fresh evidence from old data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2696-2703.
    10. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    11. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 2020. "L'estimation de modèles avec changements structurels multiples," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 96(4), pages 789-837, Décembre.
    13. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    14. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
    15. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    16. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    17. Vicente Esteve & Francisco Requena, 2006. "A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 111-128.
    18. Marcel Schroder, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    19. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Spinelli, Franco, 2000. "The long-run stability of the demand for money: Italy 1861-1996," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 717-739, June.
    20. Hsu, Chih-Chiang, 2008. "A note on tests of partial parameter stability in the cointegrated system," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 500-503, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.