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Estimating volatility clustering and variance risk premium effects on bank default indicators

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  • Turalay Kenc

    (University of Cambridge
    TOBB University of Economics and Technology)

  • Emrah Ismail Cevik

    (Tekirdag Namik Kemal University)

Abstract

Default risk increases substantially during financial stress times due to mainly the two reasons: volatility clustering and investors’ desire to protect themselves from such increases in volatility. It manifested in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009 with unpleasant outcomes of many bankruptcies and severe financial distress. To account for these features, we adapted the structural credit risk approach to include both time-varying (return) volatility and risk premium about the return volatility itself. By applying the model to US banks, we obtain better bank default indicators in comparison to the benchmark models.

Suggested Citation

  • Turalay Kenc & Emrah Ismail Cevik, 2021. "Estimating volatility clustering and variance risk premium effects on bank default indicators," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1373-1392, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:57:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-021-00981-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-021-00981-6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default risk; Structural credit risk; GARCH option pricing; Banking; Variance risk premiums;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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