Water stress and industrial firm productivity: Evidence from China

We estimate the causal effect of climate change induced water stress on firm-level productivity in China. In contrast with most extant studies that have employed precipitation to proxy firm-level availability of water, we use local water runoff, which we argue is a more appropriate measure of water stress on firms. By matching a panel for half a million formal industrial firms with county-level data on water runoff, we find that shocks to local water runoff, defined as a standard deviation increase or decrease in local water runoff from its long-run average, exert asymmetric effects on firm productivity. A negative shock to water runoff reduces firm productivity by between 1.93 and 5.40 per cent, depending on the magnitude of the shock, while the effect of a positive shock to water runoff on firm productivity is insignificant. These results are robust to numerous sensitivity checks. We show that water runoff outperforms other proxies of water availability across different horserace specifications. We find that the main transmission mechanisms are the adverse effect of negative shocks to water runoff on constraining water inputs in production, disruptions to power generation and, to a lesser extent, higher financing cost. Our study sheds new light on how climate change can impede economic development.