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The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age

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  • Maria Waldinger

Abstract

Recent studies consistently find important economic effects of year-to-year weather fluctuations. I study the economic effects of long-term and gradual climate change over 250 years in the Little Ice Age (1600–1850), during which people and economies had time to adapt. Results show significant negative economic effects of long-term climate change. Temperature impacted the economy through its effect on agricultural productivity and mortality. To adapt to the Little Ice Age, economies increased trade and changed land use. I discuss the relevance of these results for understanding the impact of today’s climate change, especially in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Waldinger, 2022. "The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(9), pages 2275-2314.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/720393
    DOI: 10.1086/720393
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zhiyue & Zhang, Wenhao & Wu, Qingyang & Liu, Jiahe & Jiang, Lei, 2024. "Climate Adaptation through Trade: Evidence and Mechanism from Heatwaves on Firms' Imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Barber, Luke & Jetter, Michael & Krieger, Tim, 2024. "Foreshadowing Mars: Religiosity and pre-Enlightenment conflict in Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302355, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Maurizio Malpede & Giacomo Falchetta & Soheil Shayegh, 2023. "Mosquitoes and Potatoes: How Local Climatic Conditions Impede Development," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(4), pages 851-892, December.
    4. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2021. "Temperature variability and long-run economic development," SocArXiv xvucn, Center for Open Science.
    5. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata & Wei, Jinlin, 2023. "Railways and cities in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Nikolai Cook, Taylor Wright, 2024. "Don’t Lose Your Cool: Temperature and Gun-Violence in North America," LCERPA Working Papers jc0146, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 2024.
    7. Luke Barber & Michael Jetter & Tim Krieger, 2023. "Foreshadowing Mars: Religiosity and Pre-Enlightenment Warfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 10806, CESifo.
    8. Xiaojun Yu & Russell Smyth & Yao Yao & Quanda Zhang, 2024. "Water stress and industrial firm productivity: Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 2024-20, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Juan Moreno-Cruz & Anthony Harding, 2022. "A Unifying Theory of Foreign Intervention in Domestic Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10172, CESifo.
    10. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Baumol's Climate Disease," Papers 2312.00160, arXiv.org.
    11. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Long, Zi & Menon, Nidhiya, 2024. "Ocean salinity, early-life health, and adaptation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde & Menon, Nidhiya & Long, Zi, 2022. "An Extra Grain of Salt: The Effect of Salinity Exposure on Early Life Health Outcomes in Coastal Bangladesh," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322076, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2023. "Temperature variability and long-run economic development," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2023. "Temperature variability and long-run economic development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119485, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Wang, Yizhong & Hang, Ye & Jeong, Sujong & Wang, Qunwei, 2023. "Intersectoral transfers and drivers of net CO2 emissions in China incorporating sources and sinks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).

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