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Are All Sovereigns Equal? A Test of the Common Determination of Sovereign Spreads in the Euro Area

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  • Heather D. Gibson
  • Stephen G. Hall
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

With the outbreak of the Greek financial crisis in late 2009, spreads on Greek (and other) sovereigns reached unprecedented levels. Using a panel data of euro-area countries, we test whether the markets treated all euro-area countries in an equal manner over the period 1998:m1 to 2012:m6. In a F-test of the pooling assumptions suggests that Greece, Ireland and Portugal were not part of the overall pool. In a separate test on the individual coefficients we find that the coefficients on these three countries moved in a similar direction away from the pool, suggesting that markets treated these three countries more acutely than the rest of the pool.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2014. "Are All Sovereigns Equal? A Test of the Common Determination of Sovereign Spreads in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:14/06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    2. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    3. László Mátyás & Patrick Sevestre (ed.), 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75892-1, July-Dece.
    4. Patrick Sevestre & Laszlo Matyas, 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00279977, HAL.
    5. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-275.
    2. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "The effectiveness of the ECB's asset purchase programs of 2009 to 2012," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 45-57.
    4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The role of ECB monetary policy and financial stress on Eurozone sovereign yields," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1189-1211, September.
    5. Zaghini, Andrea, 2016. "Fragmentation and heterogeneity in the euro-area corporate bond market: Back to normal?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 51-61.
    6. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary, 2023. "Eurozone government bond spreads: A tale of different ECB policy regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Paweł Tobera, 2019. "Ocena ratingowa a koszt obsługi długu publicznego w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w latach 2005–2017," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 87-109.
    8. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2018. "Risk perceptions and fundamental effects on sovereign spreads," Working Papers 250, Bank of Greece.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area financial crisis; sovereign spreads; panel data tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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