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The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads

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  • Afonso, António
  • Jalles, João Tovar
  • Kazemi, Mina

Abstract

We assess the impact of announcements corresponding to different fiscal and monetary policy measures on 10-year sovereign bond yield spreads (relative to Germany) of 10 EMU countries during the period 01:1999-07:2016. Implementing country-fixed effects OLS regressions, we find that the European Commission’s (EC) releases of the excessive deficit procedure significantly affect yield spreads. The EC releases of higher debt and better budget balance forecasts contribute to the rise and the decline of spreads, respectively. Moreover, we find that the announcements of the ECB’s key interest rates together with the longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) and the first covered bond purchase programme (CBPP1) negatively affect sovereign yield spreads in our sample of EMU countries. There was also some capital market mispricing of the sovereign bond risk in the Euro area before the Global Financial Crisis, notably regarding government debt forecasts.

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  • Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:63:y:2020:i:c:s014481882030137x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2020.105924
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    2. Fendel, Ralf & Neugebauer, Frederik & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2021. "Reactions of euro area government yields to Covid-19 related policy measure announcements by the European Commission and the European Central Bank," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    5. Neugebauer, Frederik & Russnak, Jan & Zimmermann, Lilli & Camarero Garcia, Sebastian, 2024. "Effects of the ECB’s communication on government bond spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Hirsch, Patrick & Palhuca, Leonardo, 2024. "A database: How the euro crisis ended: Not with a (fiscal) bang but a whimper," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1422-1441.
    7. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Iván Kataryniuk & Víctor Mora-Bajén & Javier J. Pérez, 2021. "EMU deepening and sovereign debt spreads: using political space to achieve policy space," Working Papers 2103, Banco de España.
    9. Grabowski, Wojciech & Janus, Jakub & Stawasz-Grabowska, Ewa, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic and financial markets in Central Europe: Macroeconomic measures and international policy spillovers," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    11. Anastasios Pappas & Ioannis Kostakis, 2020. "The Driving Factors of EMU Government Bond Yields: The Role of Debt, Liquidity and Fiscal Councils," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-13, September.
    12. Gilles Dufrénot & Fredj Jawadi & Zied Ftiti, 2022. "Sovereign bond market integration in the euro area: a new empirical conceptualization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 318(1), pages 147-161, November.
    13. Bossone, Biagio, 2024. "A Modigliani-Miller theorem for the public finances of globalized economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Corradin, Stefano & Schwaab, Bernd, 2023. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia before and during the Covid-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    15. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    16. Ivan Mužić & Ivan Gržeta, 2022. "Expectations of Macroeconomic News Announcements: Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign yields; Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; Event analysis; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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