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The African Credit Trap

Author

Listed:
  • Svetlana Andrianova
  • Badi Baltagi
  • Panicos Demetriades
  • David Fielding

Abstract

We put forward a plausible explanation of African financial underdevelopment in the form of a bad credit market equilibrium. Utilising an appropriately modified IO model of banking, we show that the root of the problem could be unchecked moral hazard (strategic loan defaults) or adverse selection (a lack of good projects). We provide empirical evidence from a large panel of African banks which suggests that loan defaults are a major factor inhibiting bank lending when the quality of regulation is poor. We also find that once a threshold level of regulatory quality has been reached, improvements in the default rate or regulatory quality do not matter, providing support for our theoretical predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Andrianova & Badi Baltagi & Panicos Demetriades & David Fielding, 2010. "The African Credit Trap," Discussion Papers in Economics 10/18, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Oct 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:10/18
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    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp10-18.pdf
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Svetlana Andrianova & Badi H. Baltagi & Panicos O. Demetriades & David Fielding, 2010. "The African Credit Trap," Working Papers 1004, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Honohan & Thorsten Beck, 2007. "Making Finance Work for Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6626.
    2. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2007. "Governance Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2006," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4280, The World Bank.
    3. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    4. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    5. Steven C. Salop, 1979. "Monopolistic Competition with Outside Goods," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 141-156, Spring.
    6. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    7. Andrianova, Svetlana & Demetriades, Panicos & Shortland, Anja, 2008. "Government ownership of banks, institutions, and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 218-252, February.
    8. Allen, Franklin & Otchere, Isaac & Senbet, Lemma W., 2010. "African Financial Systems: A Review," Working Papers 10-11, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    9. Panicos Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2006. "Finance, institutions and economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 245-260.
    10. Paul Milgrom., 1987. "Adverse Selection without Hidden Information," Economics Working Papers 8742, University of California at Berkeley.
    11. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937, April.
    12. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    13. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Demetriades, Panicos O. & James, Gregory A., 2011. "Finance and growth in Africa: The broken link," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 263-265.
    2. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic panel data; African financial under-development; African credit markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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