IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_5042.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ethnic Fractionalization, Governance and Loan Defaults in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Svetlana Andrianova
  • Badi H. Baltagi
  • Panicos Demetriades
  • David Fielding

Abstract

We present a theoretical model of moral hazard and adverse selection in an imperfectly competitive loans market that is suitable for application to Africa. The model allows for variation in both the level of contract enforcement (depending on the quality of governance) and the degree of market segmentation (depending on the level of ethnic fractionalization). The model predicts a specific form of non-linearity in the effects of these variables on the loan default rate. Empirical analysis using African panel data for 111 individual banks in 29 countries over 2000-2008 provides strong evidence for these predictions. Our results have important implications for the conditions under which policy reform will enhance financial development.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Andrianova & Badi H. Baltagi & Panicos Demetriades & David Fielding, 2014. "Ethnic Fractionalization, Governance and Loan Defaults in Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 5042, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5042.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Honohan & Thorsten Beck, 2007. "Making Finance Work for Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6626.
    2. Hoff, Karla & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1998. "Moneylenders and bankers: price-increasing subsidies in a monopolistically competitive market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 485-518, April.
    3. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    4. Svetlana Andrianova & Badi Baltagi & Panicos Demetriades & David Fielding, 2015. "Why Do African Banks Lend So Little?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 339-359, June.
    5. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
    6. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2007. "Governance Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2006," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4280, The World Bank.
    7. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    8. Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1995. "The Effect of Credit Market Competition on Lending Relationships," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 407-443.
    9. Besanko, David & Thakor, Anjan V, 1987. "Collateral and Rationing: Sorting Equilibria in Monopolistic and Competitive Credit Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 671-689, October.
    10. Anthony J. Venables, 2010. "Economic geography and African development," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 469-483, August.
    11. Robert Hauswald & Robert Marquez, 2006. "Competition and Strategic Information Acquisition in Credit Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 967-1000.
    12. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje van Horen, 2015. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Banking Globalization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 868-918, November.
    13. J. Miguel Villas-Boas & Udo Schmidt-Mohr, 1999. "Oligopoly with Asymmetric Information: Differentiation in Credit Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 375-396, Autumn.
    14. Ms. Françoise Le Gall & Mr. Roland Daumont & François Leroux, 2004. "Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Went Wrong?," IMF Working Papers 2004/055, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jenny C. Aker, Michael W. Klein, Stephen A. O’Connell and Muzhe Yang, 2010. "Are Borders Barriers? The Impact of International and Internal Ethnic Borders on Agricultural Markets in West Africa," Working Papers 208, Center for Global Development.
    16. Panicos Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2006. "Finance, institutions and economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 245-260.
    17. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    18. Victor Murinde, 2012. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Global and African Evidence," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 21(suppl_1), pages -56, January.
    19. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje van Horen, 2015. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Banking Globalization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 868-918, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Svetlana Andrianova & Panicos O. Demetriades, 2018. "Financial Development and Financial Fragility: Two Sides of the Same Coin?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 54-68, March.
    2. Yonatan Dinku & Dereje Regasa, 2021. "Ethnic Diversity and Local Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(3), pages 348-367, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel Fosu & Albert Danso & Henry Agyei‐Boapeah & Collins G. Ntim, 2021. "Credit information sharing and bank loan pricing: Do concentration and governance matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5884-5911, October.
    2. Ahamed, M. Mostak & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2019. "Is financial inclusion good for bank stability? International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 403-427.
    3. Samuel Fosu & Albert Danso & Henry Agyei-Boapeah & Collins G. Ntim & Emmanuel Adegbite, 2020. "Credit information sharing and loan default in developing countries: the moderating effect of banking market concentration and national governance quality," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 55-103, July.
    4. Brei, Michael & Jacolin, Luc & Noah, Alphonse, 2020. "Credit risk and bank competition in Sub-Saharan Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    5. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Regional Interest Rate Variations: Evidence from the Indonesian Credit Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-073/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2007. "A lender-based theory of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 826-859, June.
    7. Degryse, H.A. & Cerqueiro, G.M. & Ongena, S., 2007. "Distance, Bank Organizational Structure and Credit," Other publications TiSEM 34c2f607-3395-4fd9-9c52-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Ferri, Giovanni & Murro, Pierluigi, 2015. "Do firm–bank ‘odd couples’ exacerbate credit rationing?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 231-251.
    9. Svetlana Andrianova & Badi Baltagi & Panicos Demetriades & David Fielding, 2010. "The African Credit Trap," Discussion Papers in Economics 10/18, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Oct 2010.
      • Svetlana Andrianova & Badi H. Baltagi & Panicos O. Demetriades & David Fielding, 2010. "The African Credit Trap," Working Papers 1004, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    10. Michael A. Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17022, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    11. Park, Albert & Brandt, Loren & Giles, John, 2003. "Competition under credit rationing: theory and evidence from rural China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 463-495, August.
    12. Marcelin, Isaac & Egbendewe, Aklesso Y.G. & Oloufade, Djoulassi K. & Sun, Wei, 2022. "Financial inclusion, bank ownership, and economy performance: Evidence from developing countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    13. Lahkar, Ratul & Pingali, Viswanath, 2016. "Expansion and welfare in microfinance: A screening model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-7.
    14. Florian Leon, 2015. "What do we know about the role of bank competition in Africa?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01164864, HAL.
    15. Panicos Demetriades & David Fielding, 2012. "Information, Institutions, And Banking Sector Development In West Africa," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 739-753, July.
    16. Song Zhang & Liang Han & Konstantinos Kallias & Antonios Kallias, 2021. "The value of in-person banking: evidence from U.S. small businesses," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1393-1435, November.
    17. Rahman Ashiqur & Rahman M. Twyeafur & Belas Jaroslav, 2017. "Determinants of SME Finance: Evidence from Three Central European Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(3), pages 263-285, September.
    18. Hyytinen, Ari, 2003. "Information production and lending market competition," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 233-253.
    19. Michael Manove & A. Jorge Padilla & Marco Pagano, 1998. "Collateral vs. Project Screening: A Model of Lazy Banks," CSEF Working Papers 10, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    20. Choudhary, M. Ali & Jain, Anil, 2022. "Finance and inequality: The distributional impacts of bank credit rationing," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ethnic fractionalization; governance; financial development; African banks; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.