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Effects of In-Class Variation and Student Rank on the Probability of Withdrawal: Cross-Section and Time-Series Analysis for UK University Students

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  • Arulampalam, Wiji

    (University of Warwick)

  • Naylor, Robin

    (University of Warwick)

  • Smith, Jeremy

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

From individual-level data for nine entire cohorts of undergraduate students in UK universities, we estimate the probability that an individual will drop out of university during their first-year. We examine the 1984-85 to 1992-93 cohorts of students enrolling full-time for a three or four-year course, and focus on the sensitivity of the probability of withdrawal to the individual’s prior qualifications relative to those of the other students in their university course. We show not only that weaker students are more likely to withdraw but also that the extent of variation in prior qualifications within the student’s university degree course exerts an influence on the individual's probability of withdrawal in a way that varies with the individual’s own in-class rank.

Suggested Citation

  • Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2002. "Effects of In-Class Variation and Student Rank on the Probability of Withdrawal: Cross-Section and Time-Series Analysis for UK University Students," IZA Discussion Papers 655, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp655
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeremy P. Smith & Robin A. Naylor, 2001. "Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 389-405.
    2. Wiji Arulampalam & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2004. "A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop‐out in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 157-178, February.
    3. Vincent Tinto, 1997. "Classrooms as Communities," The Journal of Higher Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(6), pages 599-623, November.
    4. Audrey Light & Wayne Strayer, 2000. "Determinants of College Completion: School Quality or Student Ability?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(2), pages 299-332.
    5. Thomas, H.R. & Belfield, C.R. & Fielding, A., 1997. "The Consequences of Drop-Outs onthe Cost-Effectiveness of16-19 Colleges," Discussion Papers 97-15, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    6. Geraint Johnes & Robert McNabb, 2004. "Never Give up on the Good Times: Student Attrition in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 23-47, February.
    7. Smith, Jeremy & McKnight, Abigail & Naylor, Robin, 2000. "Graduate Employability: Policy and Performance in Higher Education in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages 382-411, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Freier, Ronny & Schumann, Mathias & Siedler, Thomas, 2015. "The earnings returns to graduating with honors — Evidence from law graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 39-50.
    2. Johannes Berens & Kerstin Schneider & Simon Görtz & Simon Oster & Julian Burghoff, 2018. "Early Detection of Students at Risk – Predicting Student Dropouts Using Administrative Student Data and Machine Learning Methods," CESifo Working Paper Series 7259, CESifo.
    3. Carmen Aina, 2010. "The Determinants of Educational Attainment, University Drop-out and Time-to-Degree. A focus on Italy," Working Papers 132, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
    4. Brunello, Giorgio & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2003. "Why do students expect to stay longer in college? Evidence from Europe," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 247-253, August.
    5. Contini,Dalit & Ricciardi,Riccardo & Romito,Marco & Salza,Guido & Zotti,Roberto, 2020. "Improving university dropout and student careers. What room for institutional action?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202004, University of Turin.
    6. Judith M. Delaney & Paul J. Devereux, 2020. "How Gender and Prior Disadvantage Predict Performance in College," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 189-239.
    7. Emanuela Ghignoni, 2015. "Family background and university dropouts during the crisis: the case of Italy," Working Papers in Public Economics 169, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    8. Fouarge, Didier & Heß, Pascal, 2023. "Preference-choice mismatch and university dropout," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Carmen Aina, 2010. "University Drop-out in Italy," Working Papers 134, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
    10. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2022. "The determinants of university dropout: A review of the socio-economic literature," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Di Pietro, Giorgio & Cutillo, Andrea, 2008. "Degree flexibility and university drop-out: The Italian experience," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 546-555, October.
    12. Bradley, Steve & Migali, Giuseppe, 2019. "The effects of the 2006 tuition fee reform and the Great Recession on university student dropout behaviour in the UK," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 331-356.
    13. G. Boero & T. Laureti & R. Naylor, 2005. "An econometric analysis of student withdrawal and progression in post-reform Italian Universities," Working Paper CRENoS 200504, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    14. Philippe Cyrenne & Alan Chan, 2019. "The Determinants of Student Success in University: A Generalized Ordered Logit Approach," Departmental Working Papers 2019-03, The University of Winnipeg, Department of Economics.
    15. Marialuisa Restaino, 2008. "Dropping out of University of Salerno: a survival approach," Working Papers 3_193, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno.
    16. D Leslie, 2004. "Does UK Higher Education Discriminate Against Women?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 9(2), pages 51-68, September.
    17. Contini, Dalit & Salza, Guido, 2020. "Too few university graduates. Inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian higher education system," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Steve Bradley & Giuseppe Migali, 2015. "The Effect of a Tuition Fee Reform on the Risk of Drop Out from University in the UK," Working Papers 86010138, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    19. Horacio Matos-Díaz, 2009. "Determinantes de las tasas universitarias de graduación, retención y deserción en Puerto Rico: Un estudio de Caso," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, May.
    20. Contini, Dalit & Salza, Guido & Scagni, Andrea, 2017. "Dropout and Time to Degree in Italian Universities Around the Economic Crisis," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201716, University of Turin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rank; prior qualifications; student withdrawal; heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

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