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External Migration from Bulgaria at the Beginning of the XXI Century: Estimates of Potential Emigrants’ Attitudes and Profile

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  • Yordan Kalchev,
  • Valentin Goev
  • Vesselin Mintchev
  • Venelin Boshnakov

Abstract

The emigration potential is estimated, as well as the profile of settlers and the temporary long-term and short-term Bulgarian emigrants. The difference between the actual emigration and the generally declared intention to travel abroad is discussed. The data from two surveys carried out using the same questionnaire in 2001 and 2003 is used. When identifying the profile of emigrants there have been established two types of variables: demographics; employment, education and previous stay abroad. There are used standard cross-tabulations and binary logit-models. Three individual logit-models for each type of emigrant are estimated. It is emphasized that: the immediate emigration potential from Bulgaria (within the current year) does not differ dramatically from that of the countries of Central Europe; age and previous stay abroad are among the most important determinants of emigration attitudes of Bulgarian citizens; employment, education and incomes do not have the expected influence. It is argumented that migratory policies, based on restrictions and bilateral agreements (in their European version), could hardly be effective under the conditions of the newly created migration networks and the business which has found a niche in the provision of emigration services.

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  • Yordan Kalchev, & Valentin Goev & Vesselin Mintchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2004. "External Migration from Bulgaria at the Beginning of the XXI Century: Estimates of Potential Emigrants’ Attitudes and Profile," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 137-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2004:i:7:p:137-161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vesselin Mintchev, 2016. "Potential and Return Migrants in Bulgaria – Demographic and Socio-Economic Aspects," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 91-115.
    2. J. Kalchev & Vesselin Mintchev & S. Blajeva & Rossitsa Rangelova & Venelin Boshnakov & Katya Vladimirova, 2006. "Gender Dimension Of The Bulgaria'S New Migration: Policy Implications," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 43-66.
    3. Vesselin Mintchev & Georgi Shopov & Iordan Kaltchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2016. "Migration of Bulgarian Population – Characteristics and Relations to the Regional Socio-Economic Disparities," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 45-78.
    4. Веселин Минчев & Венелин Бошнаков, 2007. "Ефекти, Профил И Поведение На Завръщащите Се Емигранти В България," ERI-BAS Chapters, in: Митко Димитров (ed.), Студии за ускорено развитие на българската икономика, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 165-189, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute.
    5. Venelin Boshnakov & Vesselin Mintchev, 2006. "Return Migration’s Profile and Experience: Empirical Evidence from Bulgaria," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 65, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Vesselin Mintchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2006. "Economics of Bulgarian Emigration - Empirical Assessment," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 23-47.
    7. Iskra Christova-Balkanska, 2011. "Emigration and Foreign Direct Investments: Links and Impact on the Bulgarian Economy," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 80-103.
    8. Gancho Ganchev & Mariya Paskaleva, 2019. "The Relationship between Workforce Migration and the Basic Macroeconomic Variables of the Countries from Central Eastern Europe with a Focus on Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 45-69.
    9. Iskra Christova-Balkanska, 2010. "Diversity and the Bulgarian Labor Emigration Case," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 65-84.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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