Breakthroughs, Backlashes and Artificial General Intelligence: An Extended Real Options Approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Mariana Mazzucato, 2018. "Mission-oriented innovation policies: challenges and opportunities," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(5), pages 803-815.
- Bilkic, N. & Gries, T. & Pilichowski, M., 2012.
"Stay in school or start working? — The human capital investment decision under uncertainty and irreversibility,"
Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 706-717.
- Natasa Bilkic & Thomas Gries & Margarethe Pilichowski, 2009. "Stay in School or Start Working? - The Human Capital Investment Decision under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2825, CESifo.
- Ning Cai & S. G. Kou, 2011. "Option Pricing Under a Mixed-Exponential Jump Diffusion Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(11), pages 2067-2081, November.
- Jorgensen, Steffen & Kort, Peter M. & Dockner, Engelbert J., 2006.
"Venture capital financed investments in intellectual capital,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2339-2361, November.
- Jorgensen, S. & Kort, P.M. & Dockner, E.J., 2004. "Venture capital financed investments in intellectual capital," Other publications TiSEM 0c1f3aef-7470-49cb-8101-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Dixit, Avinash K, 1989.
"Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
- Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Farzin, Y.H. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1996. "Optimal Timing of Technology Adoption," Other publications TiSEM b4f06be3-f74b-49a0-b3af-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Pierre Azoulay & Benjamin F. Jones & J. Daniel Kim & Javier Miranda, 2020.
"Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship,"
American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 65-82, March.
- Pierre Azoulay & Benjamin F. Jones & J. Daniel Kim & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship," CARRA Working Papers 2018-03, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Pierre Azoulay & Benjamin F. Jones & J. Daniel Kim & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship," Working Papers 18-23, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Pierre Azoulay & Benjamin Jones & J. Daniel Kim & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship," NBER Working Papers 24489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter N. Golder & Rachel Shacham & Debanjan Mitra, 2009. "—Innovations' Origins: When, By Whom, and How Are Radical Innovations Developed?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 166-179, 01-02.
- Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
- Gautam Ahuja & Curba Morris Lampert, 2001. "Entrepreneurship in the large corporation: a longitudinal study of how established firms create breakthrough inventions," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(6‐7), pages 521-543, June.
- Nick Bostrom, 2017. "Strategic Implications of Openness in AI Development," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8(2), pages 135-148, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1976.
"Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
- Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Natasha Bilkic & Thomas Gries & Margarethe Pilichowski, 2009. "Stay at school or start working? - Optimal timing of leaving school under uncertainty and irreversibility," Working Papers CIE 10, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
- S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
- Whalley, A. Elizabeth, 2011. "Optimal R&D investment for a risk-averse entrepreneur," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 413-429, April.
- Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998.
"Optimal timing of technology adoption,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May.
- Farzin, Y.H. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1996. "Optimal Timing of Technology Adoption," Discussion Paper 1996-72, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Farzin, Y.H. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Other publications TiSEM b1a028c3-4f0b-4e68-981f-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Jang, Jiwook, 2007. "Jump diffusion processes and their applications in insurance and finance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 62-70, July.
- Samuel Cox & Hal Pedersen, 2000. "Catastrophe Risk Bonds," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 56-82.
- Yang, Hailiang & Zhang, Lihong, 2005. "Optimal investment for insurer with jump-diffusion risk process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 615-634, December.
- Doraszelski, Ulrich, 2001. "The net present value method versus the option value of waiting: A note on Farzin, Huisman and Kort (1998)," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1109-1115, August.
- Freeman, Chris, 1994. "The Economics of Technical Change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(5), pages 463-514, October.
- Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
- Bilkic, Natasa & Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2013. "The Radical Innovation Investment Decision Refined," IZA Discussion Papers 7338, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Bilkic, Natasa & Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2013. "The Radical Innovation Investment Decision Refined," IZA Discussion Papers 7338, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Marseguerra, Giovanni & Cortelezzi, Flavia & Dominioni, Armando, 2006. "Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 611-625.
- Thomas Gries & Natasa Bilkic, 2014. "Investment under Threat of Disaster," Working Papers CIE 77, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
- José Azevedo‐Pereira & Gualter Couto & Cláudia Nunes, 2010. "Optimal timing of relocation," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 143-163, April.
- Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006.
"Irreversible investment in alternative projects,"
Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
- Décamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2003. "Irreversible Investment in Alternative Projects," IDEI Working Papers 193, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jul 2004.
- Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2017. "Strategic Technology Switching under Risk Aversion and Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2017/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
- Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Pimentel, Rita, 2021. "Quasi-analytical solution of an investment problem with decreasing investment cost due to technological innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Dagmar Nelissen & Till Requate, 2007.
"Pollution-reducing and resource-saving technological progress,"
International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 5-44.
- Nelissen, Dagmar & Requate, Till, 2004. "Pollution-Reducing and Resource-Saving Technological Progress," Economics Working Papers 2004-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Nunes, Cláudia & Pimentel, Rita & Støre, Kristian, 2021. "Capacity optimization of an innovating firm," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
- Mariotti, Thomas & Décamps, Jean-Paul & Gensbittel, Fabien, 2021.
"Investment Timing and Technological Breakthrough,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
16246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Décamps, Jean-Paul & Gensbittel, Fabien & Mariotti, Thomas, 2021. "Investment Timing and Technological Breakthroughs," TSE Working Papers 21-1222, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2024.
- Requate, Till, 2005. "Dynamic incentives by environmental policy instruments--a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 175-195, August.
- Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2020. "Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
- Eisenack, Klaus & Paschen, Marius, 2022.
"Adapting long-lived investments under climate change uncertainty,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
- Eisenack, Klaus & Paschen, Marius, 2022. "Adapting long-lived investments under climate change uncertainty," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 267892, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Michail Chronopoulos & Afzal Siddiqui, 2015. "When is it better to wait for a new version? Optimal replacement of an emerging technology under uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 177-201, December.
- Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
- Murto, Pauli, 2007. "Timing of investment under technological and revenue-related uncertainties," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1473-1497, May.
- van Soest, D.P., 2005. "The impact of environmental policy instruments on the timing of adoption of energy-saving technologies," Other publications TiSEM 9ccb4811-1045-42cd-965f-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Malchow-Moller, Nikolaj & Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark, 2005. "Repeated real options: optimal investment behaviour and a good rule of thumb," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1025-1041, June.
- Lee, Sangjun & Zhao, Jinhua, 2021. "Adaptation to climate change: Extreme events versus gradual changes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Hagspiel, V. & Huisman, Kuno & Kort, Peter M. & Nunes, Claudia & Pimentel, Rita, 2018. "Product Innovation of an Incumbent Firm : A Dynamic Analysis," Other publications TiSEM 6672723a-263b-4eb9-90a1-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
More about this item
Keywords
radical innovation; real option models; artificial intelligence; risk;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
- O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-BIG-2022-03-14 (Big Data)
- NEP-ORE-2022-03-14 (Operations Research)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.