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Optimal R&D investment for a risk-averse entrepreneur

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  • Whalley, A. Elizabeth

Abstract

Entrepreneurs investing in R&D projects face technical uncertainty associated with the cost to completion of the project, which is idiosyncratic and inherently unhedgeable. We extend existing real options models of R&D investment to incorporate the cost of bearing this unhedgeable risk and find it decreases risk-averse entrepreneurs' valuations of R&D projects and increases the minimum NPVs required for continued investment in R&D (threshold NPVs) relative to 'unpriced risk' values and threshold NPVs. As in the 'unpriced risk' case, for less risk-averse entrepreneurs with small R&D projects, threshold NPVs remain negative and decrease with technical uncertainty. However, for sufficiently risk-averse entrepreneurs with sufficiently large R&D projects, threshold NPVs can become positive and increase with technical uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Whalley, A. Elizabeth, 2011. "Optimal R&D investment for a risk-averse entrepreneur," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 413-429, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:4:p:413-429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lee, Sang-Ho & Muminov, Timur K. & Tomaru, Yoshihiro, 2017. "Partial Privatization And Subsidization In A Mixed Duopoly: R&D Versus Output Subsidies," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 58(2), pages 163-177, December.
    3. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2022. "Breakthroughs, Backlashes and Artificial General Intelligence: An Extended Real Options Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 15077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Li, Zhen & Qi, Mingliang & Wang, Renlong & Yan, Xuesong & Yang, Yangyang & Gao, Mingang, 2024. "A novel cost analysis method for accelerator driven advanced nuclear energy system (ADANES) considering uncertainty throughout the R&D cycle," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    5. Bilkic, Natasa & Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2013. "The Radical Innovation Investment Decision Refined," IZA Discussion Papers 7338, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Avinadav, Tal & Chernonog, Tatyana & Meilijson, Isaac & Perlman, Yael, 2022. "A consignment contract with revenue sharing between an app developer and a distribution platform," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    7. Anna Long & Matthew S. Wood & Daniel L. Bennett, 2023. "Entrepreneurial organizing activities and nascent venture performance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 433-461, February.

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