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Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

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  • Marseguerra, Giovanni
  • Cortelezzi, Flavia
  • Dominioni, Armando

Abstract

We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival’s entry may deeply affect firms’ decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Marseguerra, Giovanni & Cortelezzi, Flavia & Dominioni, Armando, 2006. "Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 611-625.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:29:y:2006:i:3:p:611-625
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2005.08.093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dutta, Prajit K & Rustichini, Aldo, 1993. "A Theory of Stopping Time Games with Applications to Product Innovations and Asset Sales," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(4), pages 743-763, October.
    2. Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May.
    3. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    5. Joaquin, Domingo Castelo & Khanna, Naveen, 2001. "Investment timing decisions under threat of potential competition: Why firm size matters1," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-17.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    7. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
    8. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Bing & Cao, Jiling & Chung, Hyuck, 2014. "Strategic real options with stochastic volatility in a duopoly model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 40-51.
    2. Giovanni Marseguerra & Flavia Cortelezzi, 2009. "Debt financing and real estate investment timing decisions," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 193-212, June.

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