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Organic Crop Prices, or 2x Conventional Ones?

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  • Singerman, Ariel
  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Kimble-Evans, Amanda

Abstract

Cointegration is tested between organic and conventional corn and soybean markets in several locations throughout the U.S. using a unique data set. Organic prices are found to behave like jump processes rather than diffusions, and Monte Carlo methods are developed to compute appropriate critical values for such tests. Findings indicate that no long-run relationship exists between organic and conventional prices, implying that price determination for organic corn and soybean is independent from that for the conventional crops. This suggests that organic corn and soybean prices are driven by demand and supply forces idiosyncratic to the organic market. For each crop, cointegrating spatial relationships are found between prices at the main organic markets. However, such relationships are generally weaker than the ones for the corresponding conventional prices, implying that organic markets are more affected by idiosyncratic shocks than conventional markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Singerman, Ariel & Lence, Sergio H. & Kimble-Evans, Amanda, 2010. "Organic Crop Prices, or 2x Conventional Ones?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31544, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:31544
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    1. Singerman, Ariel & Hart, Chad E. & Lence, Sergio H., 2012. "Revenue Protection for Organic Producers: Too Much or Too Little?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1-20.
    2. Delbridge, Timothy A. & King, Robert P., 2016. "Transitioning to Organic Crop Production: A Dynamic Programming Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Nadine Würriehausen & Rico Ihle & Sebastian Lakner, 2015. "Price relationships between qualitatively differentiated agricultural products: organic and conventional wheat in Germany," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 195-209, March.
    4. Singerman, Ariel, 2011. "Price Analysis, Risk Assessment and Insurance for Organic Crops," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001065, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    cointegration; jump process; organic crops; organic production; price analysis; organic price premiums;
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