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Global relationships across crude oil benchmarks

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  • Mann, Janelle
  • Sephton, Peter

Abstract

This paper empirically examines relationships and dynamics between the price of three crude oil benchmarks, namely the WTI, Brent, and Oman. Threshold cointegration is applied with findings that indicate a long run relationship exists between the pairs (WTI-Brent and WTI-Oman) of spatially separated spot markets. For the WTI-Brent spot price pair, there has not been a reversion to the long run relationship since the reversal in spread between the WTI and Brent. Further, threshold error correction models provide evidence that all three series move to restore the long run relationship in at least one regime for both pairings. Together, these results indicate that there currently is no global benchmark for crude oil. It is recommended that stakeholders such as central banks, traders, and policy makers closely monitor all three spot prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mann, Janelle & Sephton, Peter, 2016. "Global relationships across crude oil benchmarks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:2:y:2016:i:1:p:1-5
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2016.04.002
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    3. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Niyati Bhanja & Samia Nasreen & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "Connectedness in International Crude Oil Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 227-262, January.
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    6. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2018. "Gold and crude oil prices after the great moderation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 273-281.
    7. Nunes, Inês Carrilho & Catalão-Lopes, Margarida, 2020. "The impact of oil shocks on innovation for alternative sources of energy: Is there an asymmetric response when oil prices go up or down?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    8. Gao, Xin & Li, Bingxin & Liu, Rui, 2023. "The relative pricing of WTI and Brent crude oil futures: Expectations or risk premia?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    9. Rivera-Alonso, David & Iglesias, Emma M., 2024. "Is the Chinese crude oil spot price a good hedging tool for other crude oil prices, and in special for the main Russian oil benchmarks and during international sanctions?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C. & Zhang, Huiming, 2021. "The relation between petroleum product prices and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Kuck, Konstantin & Schweikert, Karsten, 2017. "A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 16-31.
    12. Huang, Wenyang & Gao, Tianxiao & Hao, Yun & Wang, Xiuqing, 2023. "Transformer-based forecasting for intraday trading in the Shanghai crude oil market: Analyzing open-high-low-close prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    13. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "How to ‘Trump’ the energy market: Evidence from the WTI-Brent spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
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    16. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C3; E3 and Q4; Crude oil futures; WTI; Brent; Oman; Benchmark; Threshold cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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