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Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule

Author

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  • Marcello Basili
  • Alain Chateauneuf

Abstract

The paper defines a consensus distribution with respect to experts’ opinions by a multiple quantile utility model. The paper points out that the Steiner Point is the representative consensus probability. The new rule of experts’ opinions aggregation, that can be evaluated by the Shapley value in a simple way, is prudential and coherent.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2014. "Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule," Working Papers 2014-541, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-541
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    File URL: https://faculty-research.ipag.edu/wp-content/uploads/recherche/WP/IPAG_WP_2014_541.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2011. "Extreme events and entropy: A multiple quantile utility model," Post-Print hal-00685405, HAL.
    2. Clemon, Robert T & Winkler, Robert L, 1986. "Combining Economic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 39-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcello Basili, 2018. "Aggregation of experts’ opinions and conditional consensus opinion," Department of Economics University of Siena 780, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-567 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf & Giuseppe Scianna, 2019. "A consistent representation of Keynes’s long-term expectation in ?nancial market," Department of Economics University of Siena 808, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-580 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2018. "Ellsberg’s Decision Rules and Keynes’s Long-Term Expectations," Department of Economics University of Siena 777, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-560 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-556 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-572 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Marcello Basili, 2013. "Ellsberg Rules and Keynes’s State of Long-Term Expectation: More Than an Accordance," Department of Economics University of Siena 685, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-570 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-457 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Aggregation; Steiner Point; Multiple Priors; Quantiles.;
    All these keywords.

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