IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usi/wpaper/808.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A consistent representation of Keynes’s long-term expectation in ?nancial market

Author

Listed:
  • Marcello Basili
  • Alain Chateauneuf
  • Giuseppe Scianna

Abstract

This paper advances an intuitive representation of Keynes’s notion of long-term expectation. We introduce the epsilon-contamination approach and represent the conventional judgment by the Steiner point of agents’ common probability set. We anticipate a change in conventional judgment by updating the Steiner point.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf & Giuseppe Scianna, 2019. "A consistent representation of Keynes’s long-term expectation in ?nancial market," Department of Economics University of Siena 808, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.deps.unisi.it/quaderni/808.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris H. DeGroot & Julia Mortera, 1991. "Optimal Linear Opinion Pools," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 546-558, May.
    2. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2013. "Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule," Department of Economics University of Siena 676, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Aloisio Araujo & Alain Chateauneuf & José Faro, 2012. "Pricing rules and Arrow–Debreu ambiguous valuation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 49(1), pages 1-35, January.
    4. Gajdos, T. & Hayashi, T. & Tallon, J.-M. & Vergnaud, J.-C., 2008. "Attitude toward imprecise information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 27-65, May.
    5. Jouini, Elyes & Kallal, Hedi, 2001. "Efficient Trading Strategies in the Presence of Market Frictions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 343-369.
    6. A. Chateauneuf & R. Kast & A. Lapied, 1996. "Choquet Pricing For Financial Markets With Frictions1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 323-330, July.
    7. Jouini, Elyes, 2000. "Price functionals with bid-ask spreads: an axiomatic approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 547-558, December.
    8. Araujo, Aloisio & Chateauneuf, Alain & Faro, José Heleno, 2018. "Financial market structures revealed by pricing rules: Efficient complete markets are prevalent," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 257-288.
    9. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2013. "Ambiguity and robust statistics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 974-1049.
      • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2011. "Ambiguity and Robust Statistics," Working Papers 382, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Castagnoli, Erio & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Insurance premia consistent with the market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-284, October.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5599 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ozaki, Hiroyuki, 2004. "Search and Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 299-333, December.
    13. repec:hal:pseose:hal-00685413 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. ,, 2009. "Choice deferral and ambiguity aversion," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 4(2), June.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4721 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 1999. "E-Capacities and the Ellsberg Paradox," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 107-138, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf & Giuliano Antonio & Giuseppe Scianna, 2023. "A representation of Keynes's long-term expectation in financial markets," Working Papers hal-03999320, HAL.
    2. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2018. "Ellsberg’s Decision Rules and Keynes’s Long-Term Expectations," Department of Economics University of Siena 777, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Araujo, Aloisio & Chateauneuf, Alain & Faro, José Heleno, 2018. "Financial market structures revealed by pricing rules: Efficient complete markets are prevalent," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 257-288.
    4. Alain Chateauneuf & Bernard Cornet, 2022. "Submodular financial markets with frictions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(2), pages 721-744, April.
    5. Aloisio Araujo & Alain Chateauneuf & José Heleno Faro & Bruno Holanda, 2019. "Updating pricing rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(2), pages 335-361, September.
    6. Igor Kopylov, 2016. "Subjective probability, confidence, and Bayesian updating," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(4), pages 635-658, October.
    7. Aloisio Araujo & Alain Chateauneuf & José Faro, 2012. "Pricing rules and Arrow–Debreu ambiguous valuation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 49(1), pages 1-35, January.
    8. Antoine Billot & Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2020. "Market Allocations under Ambiguity: A Survey," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 71(2), pages 267-282.
    9. Lorenzo Bastianello & Alain Chateauneuf & Bernard Cornet, 2022. "Put-Call Parities, absence of arbitrage opportunities and non-linear pricing rules," Papers 2203.16292, arXiv.org.
    10. John A. Major & Stephen J. Mildenhall, 2020. "Pricing and Capital Allocation for Multiline Insurance Firms With Finite Assets in an Imperfect Market," Papers 2008.12427, arXiv.org.
    11. Tarik Driouchi & Lenos Trigeorgis & Raymond H. Y. So, 2018. "Option implied ambiguity and its information content: Evidence from the subprime crisis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 463-491, March.
    12. Marcello Basili, 2013. "Ellsberg Rules and Keynes’s State of Long-Term Expectation: More Than an Accordance," Department of Economics University of Siena 685, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    13. Li, Jian, 2019. "The K-armed bandit problem with multiple priors," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 22-38.
    14. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff and Kyoungwon Seo, 2011. "Relevance and Symmetry," Economics Series Working Papers 539, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Frick, Mira & Iijima, Ryota & Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2022. "Objective rationality foundations for (dynamic) α-MEU," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Dominiak, Adam & Tserenjigmid, Gerelt, 2022. "Ambiguity under growing awareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    17. Federica Ceron & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2020. "Recursive objective and subjective multiple priors," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02563318, HAL.
    18. Lécuyer, Emy & Riedel, Frank & Stanca, Lorenzo, 2024. "Arbitrage Pricing in Convex, Cash-Additive Markets," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 694, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    19. Castagnoli, Erio & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Insurance premia consistent with the market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-284, October.
    20. Beißner, Patrick, 2013. "Coherent Price Systems and Uncertainty-Neutral Valuation," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80010, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keynes; long-term expectation; epsilon contamination; uncertainty; multiple priors.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabrizio Becatti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desieit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.