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Aggregation of experts’ opinions and conditional consensus opinion

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  • Marcello Basili

Abstract

This paper considers aggregation of experts opinions expressed through not necessarily independent but even conflicting probability distributions or multiple priors.The paper addresses elicitation of common opinion and derives its conditional probabilities on future events.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Basili, 2018. "Aggregation of experts’ opinions and conditional consensus opinion," Department of Economics University of Siena 780, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:780
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    File URL: http://repec.deps.unisi.it/quaderni/780.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2013. "Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule," Department of Economics University of Siena 676, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. Gajdos, T. & Hayashi, T. & Tallon, J.-M. & Vergnaud, J.-C., 2008. "Attitude toward imprecise information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 27-65, May.
    3. Crès, Hervé & Gilboa, Itzhak & Vieille, Nicolas, 2011. "Aggregation of multiple prior opinions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2563-2582.
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iepso50rh is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Zeshui Xu & Xiaoqiang Cai, 2012. "Minimizing Group Discordance Optimization Model for Deriving Expert Weights," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 21(6), pages 863-875, November.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iepso50rh is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2013. "Decisions with conflicting and imprecise information," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 41(2), pages 427-452, July.
    8. Sergei Pechersky, 2015. "A note on external angles of the core of convex TU games, marginal worth vectors and the Weber set," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 44(2), pages 487-498, May.
    9. Ramanathan, R. & Ganesh, L. S., 1994. "Group preference aggregation methods employed in AHP: An evaluation and an intrinsic process for deriving members' weightages," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 249-265, December.
    10. Hervé Crès & Itzhak Gilboa & Nicolas Vieille, 2011. "Aggregation of multiple prior opinions," Post-Print hal-00656618, HAL.
    11. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
    12. S. Abootalebi & A. Hadi-Vencheh & A. Jamshidi, 2018. "An Improvement to Determining Expert Weights in Group Multiple Attribute Decision Making Problem," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 215-221, April.
    13. Ramsey, Frank P., 1926. "Truth and Probability," Histoy of Economic Thought Chapters, in: Braithwaite, R. B. (ed.),The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, chapter 7, pages 156-198, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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