IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ind/igiwpp/2021-001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current account imbalances: Exploring role of domestic and external factors for large emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Krittika Banerjee

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

Global trade imbalances have been a focal point of discussion in international economics literature but opinions remain highly divided with respect to its origin. This paper studies the impact of relative financial development and governance institutions of key large emerging market economies (EMEs) on their current account balances (CAB) defined as surpluses vis-a-vis impact from uncertainty in foreign capital flows over 1995-2018. Changing dynamics of global imbalances, that underwent significant structural changes around the years 2000 and 2008 (Global Financial Crisis), is also studied. Panel instrumental variable (Anderson-Hsiao, 1981) estimation is used to account for endogeneity from institutions. Results show that EMEs with higher financial development as well as better governance institutions accumulate significantly lesser surpluses. This supports the hypothesis of excess precautionary savings from lack of institutions. Democratic accountability emerges as a dominant factor throughout the entire period of analysis and also yielded the highest impact on CAB during pre-2008 years. Government stability and anti-corruption measures along with financial development influenced CAB only after 2000. While surpluses are reduced with better institutions, they are, however, increased significantly with higher uncertainty in the external sector as well as with higher independence from natural resource exports. EME surpluses were increased significantly with increased volatility in net flows in overall and portfolio equity capital respectively in 2001-08 and post-2008 period, the latter showing the higher impact on portfolio flows to EMEs during unconventional monetary policy years. Results indicate that during post-2008 years significant rebalancing in EME surpluses occurred due to less intervention accompanied with lower growth and developing institutions. Policy implications follow: EMEs institutions are important instruments in correcting global imbalances, while AE policies should also take into account repercussions on EMEs through the financial and external sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Krittika Banerjee & Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Current account imbalances: Exploring role of domestic and external factors for large emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2021-001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xun Wang, 2020. "Financial sector policies and current account imbalances: cross country evidence," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 757-782, October.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Macroeconomic Policy And Elections In Oecd Democracies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, March.
    3. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. Krittika Banerjee & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Monetary spillovers and real exchange rate misalignments in emerging markets," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(2), pages 452-484, October.
    6. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalance," 2007 Meeting Papers 746, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Richard N. Cooper, 2007. "Living with Global Imbalances," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 91-110.
    8. Lorenzo Pellegrini & Reyer Gerlagh, 2004. "Corruption's Effect on Growth and its Transmission Channels," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 429-456, August.
    9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    10. Jamel Saadaoui, 2015. "Does financial openness explain the increase of global imbalances before the crisis of 2008?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 23-35.
    11. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Sen, Kunal, 2004. "The Determinants of Private Saving in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 491-503, March.
    12. Menzie D. Chinn & Barry Eichengreen & Hiro Ito, 2014. "A forensic analysis of global imbalances," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 465-490.
    13. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Savings Gluts and Interest Rates: The Missing Link to Europe," NBER Working Papers 11520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:bla:ecopol:v:14:y:2002:p:41-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Paolo Mauro, 2004. "The Persistence of Corruption and Slow Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(1), pages 1-1.
    16. Joseph Gruber & Steven Kamin, 2009. "Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 667-688, September.
    17. Kim, Nam-Seok & Heshmati, Almas, 2017. "The Relationship between Economic Growth and Democracy: Alternative Representations of Technological Change," GLO Discussion Paper Series 85, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    19. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Sule Akkoyunlu and Debora Ramella, 2020. "Corruption and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 63-93, June.
    21. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    22. A. Kim, 2009. "An empirical analysis of Korea's trade imbalances with the US and Japan," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-226.
    23. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2005. "Unbundling Institutions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 949-995, October.
    24. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Olivier J Blanchard, 2011. "(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/003, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    26. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    27. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2015. "Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-15.
    28. Ho-don Yan, 2005. "Causal Relationship Between the Current Account and Financial Account," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 149-162, May.
    29. Ivar Kolstad & Arne Wiig, 2013. "Digging in the dirt? Extractive industry FDI and corruption," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 369-383, November.
    30. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Woon Gyu Choi, 2010. "Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/214, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Tan, Zhibo & Yao, Yang & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2015. "Financial structure, corporate savings and current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 142-167.
    32. Shuiqing Yang, 2016. "Capital Flows, Sterilization, and Macro-Prudential Policy in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1797-1812, August.
    33. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    34. Dhar, Amrita, 2021. "Identification of Extreme Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 359-384.
    35. David Stasavage, 2002. "Private Investment and Political Institutions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 41-63.
    36. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: products of common causes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct, pages 131-172.
    37. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    39. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:149-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Papyrakis, Elissaios & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2004. "The resource curse hypothesis and its transmission channels," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 181-193, March.
    41. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    42. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993, April.
    43. B. Bayraktar-Saglam & A.Y. Yalta, 2015. "Current Account Imbalances and Capital Flows," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 201-213, May.
    44. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Agathi Tsoka, 2016. "Modeling and Estimating the Effects of Institutional Variables on a Pay-as-you-go Social Security System and on Household Saving," Public Finance Review, , vol. 44(5), pages 589-609, September.
    45. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. You, Yu & Lee, Junsoo & Kim, Yoonbai & Yang, Zheng, 2024. "Comovement and Global Imbalances of Current Accounts," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).
    2. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-251.
    3. Hamzeh Arabzadeh, 2016. "The political economy of twin deficits and wage setting centralization," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Moral-Benito, Enrique & Roehn, Oliver, 2016. "The impact of financial regulation on current account balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 148-166.
    5. Can Xu & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2023. "Does Household Borrowing Reduce the Trade Balance? Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 759-787, September.
    6. Murat Cetrez & Yasin Baris Altayligil, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic Stability in Current Account Balances," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 569-597, December.
    7. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2023. "The corporate sector and the current account," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 826-857.
    9. Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2018. "Methodologies for the Assessment of Current Account Benchmarks," European Economy - Discussion Papers 086, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Duncan, Roberto, 2015. "A threshold model of the US current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 270-280.
    11. Jamel Saadaoui, 2015. "Does financial openness explain the increase of global imbalances before the crisis of 2008?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 23-35.
    12. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
    13. Menzie D. Chinn & Barry Eichengreen & Hiro Ito, 2014. "A forensic analysis of global imbalances," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 465-490.
    14. Coulibaly, Dramane & Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mignon, Valérie, 2020. "The tale of two international phenomena: Migration and global imbalances," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Koutchogna Kokou Edem ASSOGBAVI, 2021. "Global Account Imbalances since the Global Financial Crisis: Determinants, Implications and Challenges for the Global Economy," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2021-06, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    16. Behringer, Jan & van Treeck, Till, 2018. "Income distribution and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 238-254.
    17. Huntington, Hillard G., 2015. "Crude oil trade and current account deficits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-79.
    18. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    19. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    20. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; Global imbalances; Governance; Capital flows; Precautionary savings; Uncertainty; Anderson-Hsiao method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamprasad M. Pujar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/igidrin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.