IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emeeco/v7y2015i2p201-213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Current Account Imbalances and Capital Flows

Author

Listed:
  • B. Bayraktar-Saglam
  • A.Y. Yalta

Abstract

In this article, we attempt to evaluate the causality between the current account and foreign capital flows for the emerging markets over the period of 1980–2012, by applying the heterogeneous panel Granger causality framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that applies heterogeneous panel causality tests to explain the linkages between current account and the foreign capital flows. In addition to examining the effect of overall capital flows on the current account, we focus on the effects of different types of capital flows (foreign direct investment and portfolio investment) on the current account. We also investigate how the different types of capital flows affect gross domestic saving and gross domestic investment. We find that the causality relationship between foreign capital flows and current account is highly heterogeneous.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Bayraktar-Saglam & A.Y. Yalta, 2015. "Current Account Imbalances and Capital Flows," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 201-213, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:201-213
    DOI: 10.1177/0974910115574170
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0974910115574170
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0974910115574170?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Yan, Ho-don & Yang, Cheng-lang, 2008. "Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 434-461.
    3. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    5. Calderon Cesar Augusto & Chong Alberto & Loayza Norman V., 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Chorng-Huey Wong & Luis Carranza, 1999. "Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-5.
    7. Fry, Maxwell J., 1996. "How foreign direct investment in Pacific Asia improves the current account," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 459-486.
    8. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 1999. "Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 143-180.
    9. Fernando Seabra & Lisandra Flach, 2005. "Foreign direct investment and profit outflows: a causality analysis for the Brazilian economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15.
    10. Bustelo, Pablo, 2000. "Novelties of financial crises in the 1990s and the search for new indicators," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 229-251, November.
    11. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    12. Fry, Maxwell J. & Claessens,Constantijn A. & Burridge, Peter & Blanchet, Marie-Christine, 1995. "Foreign direct investment, other capital flows, and current account deficits : what causes what?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1527, The World Bank.
    13. A. Yasemin Yalta, 2012. "Uncovering the channels through which FDI affects current account: the case of Turkey," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 158-167.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    16. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.
    17. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    18. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    19. Menzie D. Chinn & Barry Eichengreen & Hiro Ito, 2014. "A forensic analysis of global imbalances," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 465-490.
    20. Fry, M., 1996. "How Foreign Direct Investment in Pacific Asia Improves in Current Account," Papers 96-02, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
    21. Ho-don Yan, 2005. "Causal Relationship Between the Current Account and Financial Account," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 149-162, May.
    22. Sajal Lahiri & A. K. M. Mahbub Morshed, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances and Foreign Investment: A Theoretical Analysis of Interrelationships and Causalities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 369-381, May.
    23. Fry, M.J., 1996. "How Foreign Direct Investment Improves the Current Account in Pacific Basin Economies," Discussion Papers 96-21, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    24. Joze Mencinger, 2008. "The "Addiction" with FDI and Current Account Balance," ICER Working Papers 16-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    25. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6159 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:149-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191.
    28. Jansen, Karel, 1995. "The macroeconomic effects of direct foreign investment: The case of Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 193-210, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Badar Alam Iqbal & Mohd Nayyer Rahman & Nadia Yusuf, 2018. "Determinants of FDI in India and Sri Lanka," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(2), pages 116-123, May.
    2. Krittika Banerjee & Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Current account imbalances: Exploring role of domestic and external factors for large emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Ismet GOCER & Tugba AKIN & Sedat ALATAS, 2016. "The effects of saving-investment gap on economic growth in developing countries: A clustering and panel data analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 157-172, Summer.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaydeep Mukherjee & Debashis Chakraborty & Tanaya Sinha, 2013. "How has FDI influenced Current Account Balance In India? Time Series Results in presence of Endogenous Structural Breaks," Working Papers 1317, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    2. Yan, Ho-don & Yang, Cheng-lang, 2008. "Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 434-461.
    3. Evan LAU & Nelson FU, 2011. "Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 34-42.
    4. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 111-131, January.
    5. A.Yasemin YALTA & Bahar BAYRAKTAR-SAGLAM, 2016. "Interaction Between Capital Flows And Current Account: A Dynamic Panel Causality Analysis Of 19 Emerging Market Economies For The Period 1980 To 2009," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(2), pages 25-32.
    6. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Are there different linkages of foreign capital inflows and the current account between industrial countries and emerging markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 25-54, August.
    7. A. Yasemin Yalta, 2012. "Uncovering the channels through which FDI affects current account: the case of Turkey," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 158-167.
    8. Srđan Boljanović, 2012. "A Sustainability Analysis Of Serbia’S Current Account Deficit," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(195), pages 139-172, October -.
    9. Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk & Canan Sancar, 2013. "Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 791-812, December.
    10. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Working Papers hal-04141342, HAL.
    12. Oeking, Anne & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "On the relation between capital flows and the current account," Ruhr Economic Papers 565, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Osman Suliman, 2008. "Do Capital Inflows Cause Currency Black Markets in MENA? Causality Tests for Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers 381, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2008.
    14. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
    16. Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2015. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 36-74.
    17. SULIMAN, Osman, 2013. "Do Capital Inflows Cause Currency Black Markets In Mena Countries? Causality Tests For Heterogeneous Panels," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 187-202.
    18. Nathalia Rios Ballesteros & Thomas Goda, 2017. "Natural resource-seeking FDI inflows and current account deficits in commodity-producing developing economies," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 15298, Universidad EAFIT.
    19. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    20. Milan Nedeljkovic & Gonzalo Varela & Michele Savini Zangrandi, 2015. "Indonesia Current Account Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 22340, The World Bank Group.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:201-213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emergingmarketsforum.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.