IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/journl/v72y2022i2p569-597.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Role of Macroeconomic Stability in Current Account Balances

Author

Listed:
  • Murat Cetrez

    (Ford Otosan A.S, Istanbul, Turkiye)

  • Yasin Baris Altayligil

    (Istanbul University, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkiye)

Abstract

This study aims to find out the role of macroeconomic stability in current account balances. The analysis is completed for the period between 1980 and 2016 for 97 countries. The macroeconomic stability is represented by an index created with the countries’ inflation rate (CPI), growth rate, unemployment rate, and fiscal balance data. It is found that macroeconomic stability is one of the important determinants of current account balances like institutional quality and financial development. It has negative and statistically significant relationships with current account balances for four different country groups: developing countries, all countries except industrial, all countries except industrial and African countries, and all countries. Results show that macroeconomic stability is a crucial determinant for developing countries rather than high-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Cetrez & Yasin Baris Altayligil, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic Stability in Current Account Balances," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 569-597, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ist:journl:v:72:y:2022:i:2:p:569-597
    DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1172316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/9FCD1B84A9C44A2F98000802B9D5E6FD
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/ije/article/the-role-of-macroeconomic-stability-in-current-account-balances
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1172316?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 1996/058, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    3. Jorge Martínez Vázquez & Robert M. McNab, 2006. "Fiscal decentralization, macrostability and growth," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 179(4), pages 25-49, September.
    4. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    5. Recep Kok & Bernur Acikgoz Ersoy, 2009. "Analyses of FDI determinants in developing countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 105-123, January.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    7. Menzie D. Chinn & Barry Eichengreen & Hiro Ito, 2014. "A forensic analysis of global imbalances," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 465-490.
    8. Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "Decentralization and Inflation: Commitment, Collective Action, or Continuity?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 837-857, December.
    9. Todd A. Gormley & David A. Matsa, 2014. "Common Errors: How to (and Not to) Control for Unobserved Heterogeneity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 617-661.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    11. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp827, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Joseph Gruber & Steven Kamin, 2009. "Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 667-688, September.
    13. Calista Cheung & Davide Furceri & Elena Rusticelli, 2013. "Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 923-944, November.
    14. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    15. King, David & Ma, Yue, 2001. "Fiscal decentralization, central bank independence, and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 95-98, July.
    16. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    17. Neyapti, Bilin, 2004. "Fiscal decentralization, central bank independence and inflation: a panel investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 227-230, February.
    18. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    19. Yasin Baris Altayligil & Murat Çetrez, 2020. "Macroeconomic, institutional and financial determinants of current account balances: a panel data assessment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Anwar Shah, 2006. "Fiscal decentralization and macroeconomic management," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(4), pages 437-462, August.
    21. Thornton, John, 2007. "Further evidence on revenue decentralization and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 140-145, April.
    22. Anthony Legg & Nalini Prasad & Tim Robinson, 2007. "Global Imbalances and the Global Saving Glut – A Panel Data Assessment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    23. Caroline L. Freund, 2000. "Current account adjustment in industrialized countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 692, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Recep Kok & Bernur Acikgoz Ersoy, 2009. "Analyses of FDI determinants in developing countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1/2), pages 105-123, January.
    25. Chan, M.W. Luke & Hou, Keqiang & Li, Xing & Mountain, Dean C., 2014. "Foreign direct investment and its determinants: A regional panel causality analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 579-589.
    26. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yasin Baris Altayligil & Murat Çetrez, 2020. "Macroeconomic, institutional and financial determinants of current account balances: a panel data assessment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Huntington, Hillard G., 2015. "Crude oil trade and current account deficits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-79.
    4. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Dramane & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-201.
    5. Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih & Omay, Tolga, 2020. "Current account and credit growth: The role of household credit and financial depth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ali, Amjad & Audi, Marc, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on the Current Account Balance in Developing Economies: A Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 118173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Makreshanska, Suzana & Petrevski, Goran, 2015. "Fiscal Decentralization and Inflation in Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 77596, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Mar 2017.
    9. Iqbal, Nasir & Nawaz, Saima, 2010. "Fiscal Decentralization and Macroeconomic Stability: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 27184, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Mujahid, Nooreen & Ali, Amjad & Nawaz, Ahmed, 2015. "Determinants of Life Expectancy and its Prospects under the Role of Economic Misery: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 67167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2015.
    12. Moral-Benito, Enrique & Roehn, Oliver, 2016. "The impact of financial regulation on current account balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 148-166.
    13. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.
    14. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
    16. Krittika Banerjee & Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Current account imbalances: Exploring role of domestic and external factors for large emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    17. Gomes, Gabriel & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie & Paris, Anthony, 2018. "On the current account - biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 60-67.
    18. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-251.
    19. Hamzeh Arabzadeh, 2016. "The political economy of twin deficits and wage setting centralization," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    20. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account balances; Macroeconomic stability; Panel data analysis JEL Classification: C33 ; F14 ; F41 ; F62;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:journl:v:72:y:2022:i:2:p:569-597. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.