IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2018-240.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Mariscal
  • Alejandro M. Werner

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the incidence of the VAT and its effects on the income distribution. To identify these effects, we rely on two tax reforms undertaken in Mexico that increased the VAT rate for a group of cities and left the rest unaffected. We compare the inflation rate of the affected cities with the exempted cities before and after the law changed. We find that the effect on prices is limited and conclude that the burden of the tax is indeed shared between producers and consumers. Regarding welfare, we find that the VAT is progressive in both absolute and relative terms to the overall expenditure. Finally, we show that an identical change in the VAT rate when inflation is high and persistent doubles its pass-through to inflation and its welfare loss for the average household.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Mariscal & Alejandro M. Werner, 2018. "The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico," IMF Working Papers 2018/240, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=46308
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W. J. Corlett & D. C. Hague, 1953. "Complementarity and the Excess Burden of Taxation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 21(1), pages 21-30.
    2. Bird,Richard & Gendron,Pierre-Pascal, 2011. "The VAT in Developing and Transitional Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107401440, January.
    3. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    4. Heien, Dale & Wessells, Cathy Roheim, 1990. "Demand Systems Estimation with Microdata: A Censored Regression Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 365-371, July.
    5. Ricardo Batista Politi & Enlinson Mattos, 2011. "Ad‐valorem tax incidence and after‐tax price adjustments: evidence from Brazilian basic basket food," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1438-1470, November.
    6. Andrew Powell & Rodrigo Mariscal & Pilar Tavella, 2018. "On the Credibility of Inflation-Targeting Regimes in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-24, May.
    7. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    8. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    9. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Alina Carare, 2008. "Inflation Smoothing and the Modest Effect of VAT in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2008/175, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Alejandro M. Werner, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico: Performance, Credibility, and the Exchange Rate," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 31-90, January.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    12. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
    13. Ashenfelter, Orley & Card, David, 1985. "Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 648-660, November.
    14. Diamond, P. A., 1975. "A many-person Ramsey tax rule," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-342, November.
    15. Youssef Benzarti & Dorian Carloni, 2019. "Who Really Benefits from Consumption Tax Cuts? Evidence from a Large VAT Reform in France," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 38-63, February.
    16. Harald Tauchmann, 2005. "Efficiency of two-step estimators for censored systems of equations: Shonkwiler and Yen reconsidered," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 367-374.
    17. Thomas Dalsgaard, 2000. "The Tax System in Mexico: A Need for Strengthening the Revenue-Raising Capacity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 233, OECD Publishing.
    18. Kosonen, Tuomas, 2015. "More and cheaper haircuts after VAT cut? On the efficiency and incidence of service sector consumption taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-100.
    19. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July.
    20. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    21. Laura Abramovsky & Orazio Attanasio & David Phillips, 2015. "Value Added Tax policy and the case for uniformity: empirical evidence from Mexico," IFS Working Papers W15/08, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bachas, Pierre & Gadenne, Lucie & Jensen, Anders, 2020. "Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1277, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Asatryan, Zareh & Gomtsyan, David, 2020. "The incidence of VAT evasion," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Calderón, Mariana & Cortés, Josué & Pérez Pérez, Jorge & Salcedo, Alejandrina, 2023. "Disentangling the Effects of Large Minimum Wage and VAT Changes on Prices: Evidence from Mexico," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Emmanuel Chavez & Cristobal Dominguez, 2021. "Who pays for a Value Added Tax Hike at an International Border? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers halshs-03364026, HAL.
    5. Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez & Gerardo Esquivel, 2023. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Poverty: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment in Mexico," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(3), pages 360-380, March.
    6. Cesar Revoredo-Giha & Luiza Toma & Faical Akaichi, 2020. "An Analysis of the Tax Incidence of VAT to Milk in Malawi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-17, September.
    7. Campos-Vazquez Raymundo M. & Delgado Victor & Rodas Alexis, 2020. "The effects of a place-based tax cut and minimum wage increase on labor market outcomes," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, March.
    8. Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Esquivel, Gerardo, 2020. "The effect of doubling the minimum wage and decreasing taxes on inflation in Mexico," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrej Cupák & Peter Tóth, 2017. "Measuring the Efficiency of VAT reforms: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    2. Asatryan, Zareh & Gomtsyan, David, 2020. "The incidence of VAT evasion," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Pablo Gálvez & Petr Mariel & David Hoyos, 2016. "Análisis de la demanda residencial de los servicios básicos en España usando un modelo QUAIDS censurado," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 43(1 Year 20), pages 5-28, June.
    4. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hines, James Jr., 2002. "Taxation and economic efficiency," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 21, pages 1347-1421, Elsevier.
    5. Calderón, Mariana & Cortés, Josué & Pérez Pérez, Jorge & Salcedo, Alejandrina, 2023. "Disentangling the Effects of Large Minimum Wage and VAT Changes on Prices: Evidence from Mexico," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Bas (B.) Jacobs & Rick (F.) van der Ploeg, 2017. "Should Pollution Taxes Be Targeted At Income Redistribution?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-070/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Luigi Cembalo & Francesco Caracciolo & Eugenio Pomarici, 2014. "Drinking cheaply: the demand for basic wine in Italy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(3), pages 374-391, July.
    8. Dora Benedek & Ruud A. Mooij & Michael Keen & Philippe Wingender, 2020. "Varieties of VAT pass through," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(4), pages 890-930, August.
    9. Javier García-Enríquez & Cruz A. Echevarría, 2018. "Demand for culture in Spain and the 2012 VAT rise," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 42(3), pages 469-506, August.
    10. Maganga, Assa Mulagha & Phiri, M. Alexander R. & Mapemba, Lawrence D. & Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G. & Dzanja, Josephy K., 2014. "A Food Demand System Estimation for Rural Malawi: Estimates Using Third Integrated Household Survey Data," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 174853, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Renner, Sebastian & Lay, Jann & Schleicher, Michael, 2017. "The Effects of Energy Price Changes: Heterogeneous Welfare Impacts, Energy Poverty, and CO2 Emissions in Indonesia," GIGA Working Papers 302, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    12. Shojaeddini, Ensieh & Schreiber, Andrew & Wolverton, Ann & Marten, Alex, 2024. "Consumer demand and the economy-wide costs of regulation: Modeling households with empirically estimated flexible functional forms," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Ole Boysen, 2016. "Food Demand Characteristics in Uganda: Estimation and Policy Relevance," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(2), pages 260-293, June.
    14. A. Montini, 1999. "I consumi alimentari delle famiglie italiane: un modello per le decisioni di consumo extradomestico utilizzando i microdati di spesa familiare," Working Papers 364, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Echeverría, Lucía & Menon, Martina & Perali, Federico & Berges, Miriam, 2019. "Intra-household inequality and child welfare in Argentina," Nülan. Deposited Documents 3051, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    16. Lydia Dimitrakopoulou & Christos Genakos & Themistoklis Kampouris & Stella Papadokonstantaki, 2023. "VAT pass-through and competition: Evidence from the Greek Islands," POID Working Papers 078, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Lydia Dimitrakopoulou & Christos Genakos & Themistoklis Kampouris & Stella Papadokonstantaki, 2023. "VAT pass-through and competition: evidence from the Greek Islands," CEP Discussion Papers dp1923, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Miguel Gómez-Antonio & Ignacio del Moral Arce & Miriam Hortas-Rico, 2022. "Are vat reforms an effective tool for promoting the consumption of culture? Evidence from a quasiexperiment in Spain," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2203, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    19. Hasan Tekgüç, 2012. "Separability between own food production and consumption in Turkey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 423-439, September.
    20. Dimitrakopoulou, Lydia & Genakos, Christos & Kampouris, Themistoklis & Papadokonstantaki, Stella, 2023. "VAT pass-through and competition: evidence from the Greek Islands," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121321, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.