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On the credibility of inflation-targeting regimes in Latin America

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  • Mariscal, Rodrigo
  • Powell, Andrew
  • Tavella, Pilar

Abstract

Inflation targeting has become popular in emerging economies. Eight countries in Latin America adopted this regime and were successful in bringing inflation down. However, continuing success depends on the credibility of the target. We interpret credibility as how tightly inflation expectations are anchored and develop a methodology to test the response to shocks. Inflation targets gained credibility over time, but when inflation rises above target, credibility suffers. Moreover, at the end of the sample, there is evidence of de-anchoring.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariscal, Rodrigo & Powell, Andrew & Tavella, Pilar, 2018. "On the credibility of inflation-targeting regimes in Latin America," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123156, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123156
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/123156/
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García & Patricia Toledo, 2022. "Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study," Globalization Institute Working Papers 418, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 22 Aug 2024.
    2. Fernando José Pérez Forero, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierachical Panel VAR," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2015eng, July-Dece.
    3. Marco A. Acosta, 2017. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Mexico," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 95-132, January-J.
    4. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Cuadra Gabriel & Ramírez Claudia & Sámano Daniel, 2014. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Light of Adverse Supply Shocks," Working Papers 2014-20, Banco de México.
    5. Ana María Aguilar Argaez & Gabriel Cuadra & Claudia Ramírez Bulos & Daniel Sámano Peñaloza, 2014. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations after Adverse Supply Shocks," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 49-81, January-J.
    6. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Mustafa Cagri Peker, 2017. "Inflation Target Credibility: Do the Financial Markets Find the Targets Believable?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1125-1147, December.
    7. Rodrigo Mariscal & Alejandro M. Werner, 2018. "The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico," IMF Working Papers 2018/240, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Igor da Silva Veiga, 2017. "The open economy trilemma in Latin America: A three-decade analysis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 135-154, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; monetary policy; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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