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Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” In Financially Open Economies?

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  • Ilan GOLDFAJN
  • Gino OLIVARES

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that exchange rates in developing countries have limited flexibility. In this paper we review the existing explanations for this stylized fact, using a simple framework of monetary policy in a world where firms face balance sheet effects and the economy has a high pass-through from depreciation to inflation. We estimate a panel regression using quarterly data in the period 1990–1999 for a sample of 46 countries (19 industrial and 27 developing), and find that the use of the exchange rate to buffer external shocks depends crucially on (i) on the degree of integration with capital markets, and (ii) the quality of external financing. We conclude that flexible regimes are viable in financially open economies, provided external financing is not based on very volatile capital. This, of course, is dependent on the establishment of credible macroeconomic policies.

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  • Ilan GOLDFAJN & Gino OLIVARES, 2001. "Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” In Financially Open Economies?," G-24 Discussion Papers 8, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:unc:g24pap:8
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    2. Flávio Vilela Vieira & Márcio Holland, 2004. "Exchange Rate Dynamics In Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 066, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza & Cecília Rutkoski Hoff, 2003. "O Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Flutuação Genuína ou Medo de Flutuação?," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c60, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    6. Hurşit GÜNEŞ, 2021. "The Political Anatomy of Economic Crises – The Case of Turkey: 1945-2018," Yildiz Social Science Review, Yildiz Technical University, vol. 7(2), pages 91-109, December .
    7. Ilker Domaç & Eray M. Yücel, 2005. "What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 141-164, April.
    8. Dejene Mamo Bekana, 2016. "What Causes Inflation in a Post Communist Economy? Evidence from Ethiopia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 3-46, September.
    9. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "What Triggers Prolonged Inflation Regimes? A Historical Analysis," Working Paper Series 1109, European Central Bank.
    11. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    12. Oldřich Dědek, 2002. "Managing economic convergence and financial stability in the czech republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2002(2), pages 121-134.
    13. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Carrera, Jorge Eduardo & Cicowiez, Martín & Lacunza, Hernán & Saavedra, Marcelo, 2005. "Interdependencia y regímenes cambiarios en Mercosur: un modelo macroeconómico de equilibrio general computado para su medición [Interdependence under different exchange rate regimes in the Mercosur," MPRA Paper 7845, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
    15. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    16. Siwei Goo & Reza Siregar, 2009. "Economic Shocks And Exchange Rate As A Shock Absorber In Indonesia And Thailand," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp72, April.
    17. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.

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