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Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks

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  • Sergio de Ferra
  • Kurt Mitman
  • Federica Romei

Abstract

We study the role of heterogeneity in the transmission of foreign shocks. We build a Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian Small Open Model Economy (HANKSOME) that experiences a current account reversal. Households' portfolio composition and the extent of foreign currency borrowing are key determinants of the magnitude of the contraction in consumption associated with a sudden stop in capital inflows. The contraction is more severe when households are leveraged and owe debt in foreign currency. In this setting, the revaluation of foreign debt causes a larger contraction in aggregate consumption when debt and leverage are concentrated among poorer households. Closing the output gap via an exchange-rate devaluation may therefore be detrimental to household welfare due to the heterogeneous impact of the foreign debt revaluation. Our HANKSOME framework can rationalize the observed "fear of floating" in emerging market economies, even in the absence of contractionary devaluations

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  • Sergio de Ferra & Kurt Mitman & Federica Romei, 2019. "Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks," NBER Working Papers 26402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26402
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xing Guo & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 191-241.
    3. Oskolkov, Aleksei, 2023. "Exchange rate policy and heterogeneity in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Chan, Jenny & Diz, Sebastian & Kanngiesser, Derrick, 2024. "Energy prices and household heterogeneity: Monetary policy in a Gas-TANK," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    5. Cheng Zhou, 2022. "The impact of financial openness on income inequality," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 1931-1945.
    6. Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly, 2021. "Liquidity Traps, Prudential Policies, and International Spillovers," Working Papers 780, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. de Ferra, Sergio & Romei, Federica & Mitman, Kurt, 2021. "Why Does Capital Flow from Equal to Unequal Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Gyöngyösi, Győző & Rariga, Judit & Verner, Emil, 2021. "The anatomy of consumption in a household foreign currency debt crisis," SAFE Working Paper Series 332, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    9. Marco Bellifemine & Adrien Couturier & Rustam Jamilov, 2023. "The Regional Keynesian Cross," Discussion Papers 2311, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Hong, Seungki, 2023. "MPCs in an emerging economy: Evidence from Peru," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Palma Filep-Mosberger & Lorant Kaszab & Zhou Ren, 2024. "Spillover Effects of Foreign Currency Loans: the Role of the Bank Lending Channel," MNB Working Papers 2024/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    12. Chen, Sihao & Devereux, Michael B. & Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2023. "Consumption heterogeneity and monetary policy in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-15.
    13. Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Santiago Camara, 2022. "TANK meets Diaz-Alejandro: Household heterogeneity, non-homothetic preferences & policy design," Papers 2201.02916, arXiv.org.
    15. Francesco Ferrante & Nils M. Gornemann, 2022. "Devaluations, Deposit Dollarization, and Household Heterogeneity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1336, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Xiaoshan Chen & Spyridon Lazarakis & Petros Varthalitis, 2023. "Debt targets and fiscal consolidation in a two-country HANK model for the Euro Area," Working Papers 374162075, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    18. Marco Bellifemine & Adrien Couturier & Rustam Jamilov, 2022. "The Regional Keynesian Cross," Economics Series Working Papers 995, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Lozej, Matija & Röttger, Joost, 2024. "On household labour supply in sticky-wage HANK models," Discussion Papers 01/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Xiaoshan Chen & Spyridon Lazarakis & Petros Varthalitis, 2023. "Debt targets and fiscal consolidation in a two country HANK model: the case of Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023_02, Durham University, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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